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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
300 PM MDT Tuesday Mar 16 2010 


Discussion... 
quiet weather conditions are noted across the land of enchantment 
this afternoon as the upper level system that impacted the region 
yesterday continues to pull away. Clear skies will prevail tonight 
across the forecast area with temperatures remaining near seasonal 
averages outside of deep snowpack. Patchy fog could develop in the 
northern valleys after midnight and persist through middle-morning on Wednesday. 


Upper level ridge axis currently along a line from SW Arizona to NE 
Montana will roll over New Mexico by Wednesday afternoon. This will lead 
to warmer temperatures statewide with strengthening inversions for 
the overnight period. The ridge will shift east of the County Warning Area on Thursday 
as an approaching disturbance in the Pacific northwest dives into 
the Great Basin. High temperatures should receive another boost as 
SW flow ensues statewide along with a strengthening Lee side trough 
in the eastern plains. Thursday afternoon will likely be the warmest day for 
the land of enchantment. 


Aforementioned disturbance will migrate into central Colorado and 
The Four Corners region by Thursday night. This will increase precipitation 
chances as accompanying moisture is deposited across the northern high 
terrain. It appears snow levels Thursday night will be relatively 
high before strong cold air advection takes control on Friday. The 
system will traverse NE New Mexico on Friday as a surface cold front 
sweeps across nm. This should bring gusty northwest winds in its wake... 
especially within the far eastern plains. European model (ecmwf)/gfs40 advertise 700mb 
temperatures dropping below -10c along the Colorado border...while 
the nam12 is notably warmer. Opted to discard the nam12 solution... 
thus supporting more snowfall in the NE quadrant of the state. The 
inherited grids were in great shape and made only a few adjustments. 
Active north/northwest pattern will persist into Saturday before the gradient 
relaxes on Sunday due to a developing ridge in the western U.S. Models 
suggest this ridge will quickly pass through New Mexico on Monday 
before another upper level bowling Ball rolls into the southwestern states. 
Dporter 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions will continue over the majority of the forecast area 
for at least the next 24 hours as a ridge of high pressure continues 
to build over the SW United States. Tonight into early Wednesday 
morning...there is a chance that patchy fog and low clouds will 
develop in the high valleys of the northern mountains...such as the 
Moreno Valley including kaxx...as well as along the west slopes of 
the northern mountains from around Chama and Dulce to around Cuba. 
Believe the chance for fog/low clouds from klvs to krtn is minimal 
tonight based on low model surface humidities and the expectation of 
weak downsloping wind 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 09z. 44 


&& 


Fire weather... 
a ridge of high pressure will cross nm through middle week enabling the 
weather to remain dry and allowing minimum humidities to trend 
downward each day. By Thursday and perhaps Friday...humidities 
across southern parts of the lower Rio Grande Valley may crater just 
below 15 percent. Meanwhile...wind speeds are expected to remain 
below critical thresholds...although SW winds should become breezy 
east of the sangres and sandias Thursday afternoon. Another day of 
poor ventilation is expected Wednesday from the east slopes of the 
northern mountains and westward...as well as along the east slopes 
of the central mountains. However...stronger winds on Thursday will 
result in improving ventilation in all areas. 


Thursday night precipitation chances will begin to increase across northwest nm as 
a storm system approaches the state from the northwest. Models now depict 
this feature dropping into The Four Corners area Friday afternoon... 
then tracking eastward along the nm/Colorado border Friday night. Models 
agree better on the timing than on the track of the system...with 
the GFS taking the system eastward more on the Colorado side of the 
border. Either Route will result in the polar jet stream crossing 
southern New Mexico with west winds reaching at least 15 to 30 miles per hour 
and potentially stronger Friday afternoon mainly south of I-40. The 
eastern plains will also experience similar wind speeds Friday 
afternoon and night as a strong cold front drives southward into the 
state. A few to several inches of snow accumulation will be 
possible mainly in the northern mountains and across the northeast 
plains Friday through Saturday...with lighter amounts possible along 
and east of the central mountains. 


Behind the system...upper ridge and northwest to northerly flow 
will take over through the first part of next week with a return to 
dry conditions and more seasonable temperatures to open the 2010 
Spring season. Longer range models suggest another storm system may 
take aim on the state Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. 44 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 28 61 30 66 / 0 0 0 5 
Dulce........................... 18 58 22 60 / 0 0 0 5 
Cuba............................ 20 59 24 59 / 0 0 0 0 
Gallup.......................... 21 63 24 65 / 0 0 0 0 
El Morro........................ 23 59 25 61 / 0 0 0 0 
Grants.......................... 20 63 23 65 / 0 0 0 0 
Quemado......................... 20 61 24 64 / 0 0 0 0 
Glenwood........................ 31 70 31 71 / 0 0 0 0 
Chama........................... 16 54 20 53 / 0 0 0 5 
Los Alamos...................... 29 59 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 
Pecos........................... 23 57 26 58 / 0 0 0 0 
Cerro/Questa.................... 14 52 19 54 / 0 0 0 0 
Red River....................... 14 48 20 48 / 0 0 0 0 
Angel Fire...................... 2 51 19 50 / 0 0 0 0 
Taos............................ 20 58 24 60 / 0 0 0 0 
Espanola........................ 24 64 29 65 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Fe........................ 24 58 26 60 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Fe Airport................ 27 61 30 63 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque foothills........... 32 64 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque heights............. 33 65 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque valley.............. 28 66 32 69 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 30 66 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 
Los Lunas....................... 29 68 33 69 / 0 0 0 0 
Rio Rancho...................... 31 65 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 
Socorro......................... 30 67 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 21 55 25 58 / 0 0 0 0 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 26 60 25 63 / 0 0 0 0 
Clines Corners.................. 27 60 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 
Gran Quivira.................... 29 63 32 63 / 0 0 0 0 
Carrizozo....................... 32 69 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 
Ruidoso......................... 27 57 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 
Capulin......................... 25 56 23 60 / 0 0 0 0 
Raton........................... 25 63 25 67 / 0 0 0 0 
Las Vegas....................... 22 60 26 61 / 0 0 0 0 
Clayton......................... 34 64 33 69 / 0 0 0 0 
Roy............................. 27 62 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 
Conchas......................... 29 69 33 71 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Rosa...................... 29 69 34 70 / 0 0 0 0 
Tucumcari....................... 31 67 34 70 / 0 0 0 0 
Clovis.......................... 36 66 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 
Portales........................ 33 68 34 69 / 0 0 0 0 
Fort Sumner..................... 31 69 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 
Roswell......................... 32 69 36 71 / 0 0 0 0 
Picacho......................... 31 69 33 72 / 0 0 0 0 
Elk............................. 28 65 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


46/44 

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