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fxus65 kabq 102205 
afdabq 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
305 PM MST Wednesday Mar 10 2010 


Discussion... 
upper low has quickly moved east this afternoon into Texas and 
Oklahoma. Appears that 700 mb low was a bit further south than what 
was advertised yesterday...thus...the axis of strongest winds was 
shunted a bit further south. Surface winds have struggled to reach 
Wind Advisory across most areas...and thus have cancelled the Wind 
Advisory. However...snow amounts thus far have generally been on 
target...though a few lower elevations locales received a bit more 
than anticipated. Though there is a some intermittent showers 
going on now...expect activity to ramp up this evening as the next 
disturbance moves across the state. Already seeing signs of 
increasing coverage to the west per Flagstaff radar imagery. 
Therefore...will leave winter highlights in place. Additional snow 
amounts this evening are not expected to be as great as last 
night...however...mountain areas could pick up an additional 2 to 
4 inches...with locally higher amounts...and low elevation areas 
should see 1 or 2 inches. Snow across the northeast will likely 
not get going until around just before midnight as another back 
door front moves into the area. Appears from observations in 
eastern Colorado that the colder air is lagging behind the 
front...thus these areas may see rain before snow. However...winds 
will be gusty behind the front...therefore...expect some blowing 
snow and reduced visibilities to occur. 


Models are advertising this next disturbance to close off across 
southeast nm. This could mean light to moderate snowfall 
accumulations for areas just east of the Central Mountain chain Thursday 
morning. Later shifts will need to determine if winter weather advisories 
around klvs need to be extended and/or issued around kcqc. 


Much of the precipitation will end Thursday afternoon. An upper level ridge 
will begin to edge in across the state...allowing for a quick warm 
up on Friday and moreso on Saturday. 


Models in much better agreement regarding the closed upper low on 
Sunday and Monday. Both the GFS and Euro are diving a closed low 
over Arizona on Sunday...across the bootheel of nm late Sunday 
night...before diving into old Mexico on Monday. An associated cold 
front looks to plow through the eastern plains...and through the 
gaps of the Central Mountain chain. With abundant surface and upper 
level lift...expect Sunday into Monday to be wet...and additional 
snow accumulations appear possible. Increased probability of precipitation for this time 
period. 


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&& 


Aviation... 
periods of MVFR will continue to plague most of the terminal 
forecast sites such as gup...fmn...saf and lvs through the rest of 
the afternoon. The next in a series of Pacific waves is bearing down 
on the state and will provide additional MVFR and even IFR 
conditions tonight. Snowfall is expected once again and plan on mountains 
obscured for most of the northern half with mountain tops obscured across the 
south. The focus will shift eastward as the day progresses on 
Thursday with low ceilings and snow squarely across portions of the 
eastern plains and ctrl mountains during the afternoon. Wind gusts over 
the next 24 hours will be the strongest across the northeast half on 
Thursday...especially during the afternoon due to a back door cold 
front. Wind gusts associated with this frontal push will range 
between 30 to 40 knots for a few hour time period. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 10z. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
the first in a series of Pacific waves has moved off to the east but 
another Pacific wave is fast on its heals and is starting to spread 
sporadic snow showers across northern and western portions of New 
Mexico. The main bulk of this waves energy will move across the 
state tonight into Thursday. Additional snow accumulations are 
expected with this system passage. Winds should remain gusty at 
times across most of the area tonight but not nearly as strong as 
observed last night. Additional wind...associated with a back door 
front...is expected across the eastern plains...especially northeast 
on Thursday. As a result...ventilation ratings will remain good to 
excellent most areas on Thursday. Humidity readings will also remain 
on the high side with temperatures running 10 to 20 degrees below 
normal. 


It still looks like the upper level ridge and corresponding surface 
high will build over the area on Friday. As a result...drier 
conditions will entrain back over the state. A middle level dry slot is 
still depicted by the models to affect the mountains and southern 
areas of the state on Friday. As a result...humidity readings should 
lower between 15 to 30 percent but temperatures will still be 4 to 10 
degrees below normal. 


It appears that the weather models are trending slightly slower 
for the weekend system so expect drier conditions to continue 
through the full day on Saturday and most likely continue into most 
of Saturday night. The next Pacific wave is expected to spread 
precipitation into western portions of the state late Saturday night 
into Sunday and continue to spread precipitation eastward on Sunday. 
Continued affects as the system dives south/southeastward Sunday 
night into Monday. The 12z models appear to be fairly consistent 
with the track of this system but have varied some model run to 
model run so there is still some uncertainty. It does appear that 
this will be another potent wave with perhaps a little more of a 
back door influence than earlier indicated. Thus...changed the wind 
forecast to take this possibility into account. Humidity values 
during this period would trend up while ventilation will be quite 
varied depending on where the strongest wind gradient associated 
with the back door front will be. 


Still looking at a drying trend by the middle of next week but 
unsure how long that will last. 


50 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 27 44 22 51 / 60 20 0 0 
Dulce........................... 21 39 9 43 / 60 30 5 0 
Cuba............................ 22 40 13 42 / 60 40 5 0 
Gallup.......................... 22 41 17 50 / 60 20 0 0 
El Morro........................ 19 38 16 48 / 50 20 0 0 
Grants.......................... 22 42 18 50 / 50 20 0 0 
Quemado......................... 21 41 17 49 / 50 20 0 0 
Glenwood........................ 28 53 26 61 / 30 10 0 0 
Chama........................... 14 38 5 41 / 60 40 10 0 
Los Alamos...................... 22 41 18 45 / 50 30 10 0 
Pecos........................... 20 41 18 48 / 50 50 10 0 
Cerro/Questa.................... 13 39 6 41 / 60 50 10 0 
Red River....................... 12 31 5 37 / 70 50 10 0 
Angel Fire...................... 13 33 4 39 / 70 50 10 0 
Taos............................ 21 41 12 44 / 60 50 10 0 
Espanola........................ 27 48 23 52 / 50 40 10 0 
Santa Fe........................ 22 40 19 46 / 50 40 10 0 
Santa Fe Airport................ 24 44 21 49 / 50 40 10 0 
Albuquerque foothills........... 29 47 26 53 / 50 30 5 0 
Albuquerque heights............. 31 48 28 54 / 50 20 5 0 
Albuquerque valley.............. 28 49 25 55 / 50 20 5 0 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 30 48 27 54 / 50 20 5 0 
Los Lunas....................... 29 52 27 57 / 50 20 5 0 
Rio Rancho...................... 30 48 28 54 / 50 20 5 0 
Socorro......................... 32 53 28 61 / 30 10 5 0 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 23 41 19 47 / 50 30 5 0 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 24 42 23 50 / 40 40 5 0 
Clines Corners.................. 20 37 21 48 / 40 60 10 0 
Gran Quivira.................... 26 44 25 51 / 40 30 5 0 
Carrizozo....................... 28 48 27 56 / 30 20 0 0 
Ruidoso......................... 25 41 24 49 / 30 30 0 0 
Capulin......................... 18 39 17 46 / 60 20 5 0 
Raton........................... 20 44 17 52 / 60 20 5 0 
Las Vegas....................... 18 38 18 48 / 40 50 10 0 
Clayton......................... 24 47 26 56 / 40 10 5 0 
Roy............................. 24 44 26 51 / 40 30 5 0 
Conchas......................... 28 50 28 59 / 20 40 5 0 
Santa Rosa...................... 31 48 28 59 / 20 50 5 0 
Tucumcari....................... 27 51 27 59 / 20 40 5 0 
Clovis.......................... 29 47 29 59 / 10 40 5 0 
Portales........................ 30 49 30 60 / 10 40 5 0 
Fort Sumner..................... 31 51 30 61 / 10 50 5 0 
Roswell......................... 35 53 31 64 / 10 30 5 0 
Picacho......................... 30 49 28 59 / 10 30 0 0 
Elk............................. 27 46 26 54 / 10 20 0 0 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 am MST Thursday for the following 
zones...nmz517-518-529-531. 


Winter Storm Warning until 5 am MST Thursday for the following 
zones...nmz503-504-510>516-527-528-530. 


&& 


$$ 


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