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fxus65 kabq 182033 
afdabq 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
232 PM MDT Friday Jul 18 2008 


Discussion... 
high pressure aloft centered along Arizona and nm border. The high will 
continue to drift north to The Four Corners area early Sat...turn NE 
into Colorado late...and then will move east sun and early next week. The 
high is then forecast to build back over nm later next week. A few 
easterly waves will impact mainly western areas of the state over the 
next week. 


Short wave entering Colorado will combine with plenty of low level 
moisture to make for another active evening of convection. Main 
focus again will be from SW and SC areas to the NE. Isolated severe 
weather and flash flooding possible...with main focus for severe 
weather in the NE where shear and instability the greatest. 


With the high shifting to the north of nm this weekend...the east to west 
flow will mean favored areas for storms will be from the Central 
Mountain chain west to the Arizona border. A weak easterly wave over Texas 
will also provide subsidence ahead of it over southeast nm. 


As the high moves east later this weekend and early next week surges 
of deep moisture should make their way north into nm...mainly over the 
western half of the state. A surface front may reach far NE nm on Monday 
or Monday night...although models have backed off some on the front 
pushing very far into nm. So focus for storms much of next week 
should be over the central and west. If the high does build back over 
nm later next week...there could be a slight reduction in storms. 
Chj 


&& 


Aviation... 
scattered thunderstorms will remain across the forecast area. Sb's 
and ceilings will lower accordingly when one moves over a terminal site. 
Mainly MVFR conditions will be associated with the thunderstorm 
activity however...strong thunderstorms will produce brief IFR 
results. Gusty outflow winds with peak gusts in the 30s and 40s will 
also be possible as several have already occurred early this 
afternoon. Lesser activity expected after midnight. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 09z. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
no real changes in the forecast. High confidence that the upper high 
will gravitate from over The Four Corners region to over Colorado 
this weekend. Then gravitate east of the state early next week. As 
the upper high translates eastward...wetting rain coverage will 
become more prevalent across the western half than eastern half. 
Humidity will also rise across the west during this transition as 
moisture flows up from Mexico. This will result longer durations of 
rain cooled air and abundant cloud cover. The upper high could 
gravitate back to over portions of New Mexico by the end of next 
week. However abundant moisture will be in place to keep wetting 
showers and thunderstorms going over at least the western half. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 63 97 65 93 / 20 10 20 20 
Gallup.......................... 55 90 58 86 / 20 20 30 30 
Grants.......................... 56 89 56 85 / 20 20 30 20 
Glenwood........................ 63 91 63 87 / 30 30 40 40 
Chama........................... 47 85 49 80 / 30 30 30 20 
Los Alamos...................... 56 84 57 79 / 30 40 30 20 
Red River....................... 43 76 45 74 / 50 30 20 10 
Taos............................ 52 85 53 86 / 30 30 20 20 
Santa Fe........................ 61 79 56 82 / 30 50 30 20 
Santa Fe Airport................ 60 87 59 87 / 30 40 30 20 
Espanola........................ 58 91 57 90 / 30 30 30 20 
Albuquerque heights............. 69 91 68 88 / 20 30 30 20 
Albuquerque valley.............. 64 92 64 91 / 20 30 30 20 
Albuquerque foothills........... 63 89 62 87 / 20 30 30 20 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 91 66 90 / 20 30 30 20 
Socorro......................... 64 92 65 91 / 30 40 40 20 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 84 58 85 / 30 30 30 20 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 57 86 56 81 / 30 30 30 20 
Carrizozo....................... 60 88 60 89 / 30 40 30 20 
Ruidoso......................... 52 80 53 80 / 30 50 30 20 
Raton........................... 55 90 55 93 / 40 20 5 5 
Las Vegas....................... 57 84 55 85 / 40 20 20 10 
Roy............................. 62 91 61 87 / 40 10 5 5 
Clayton......................... 63 92 63 94 / 40 10 5 0 
Santa Rosa...................... 62 90 62 90 / 30 10 5 5 
Tucumcari....................... 67 94 67 97 / 30 10 5 5 
Fort Sumner..................... 66 91 66 94 / 20 10 5 5 
Clovis.......................... 66 92 65 93 / 20 10 5 5 
Portales........................ 68 91 66 94 / 20 10 5 5 
Roswell......................... 68 94 68 95 / 20 10 5 5 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


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