467 
fxus64 kepz 212000 
afdepz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm 
100 PM MST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Synopsis... 
westerly winds will bring warm dry weather to southern New Mexico 
and western Texas Sunday and Monday. A cold front will then move 
southward through the region and cause continued dry but cooler 
weather on Tuesday. High pressure will result in continued mostly 
sunny weather through the Thanksgiving Holiday weekend with 
temperatures near normal. 


&& 


Discussion... 
no significant changes required to earlier outlook as all models 
in agreement that tranquil weather pattern will persist into at 
least Thursday. For Sunday and Monday zonal flow will continue 
across the Rocky Mountains with short waves aloft moving into the 
central/northern plains each day. Somewhat weak but slow moving 
Lee surface trough will also cover eastern New Mexico and the 
Texas Panhandle thus inducing deep westerly flow next two days. 
The result will be transport of warm dry air mass with afternoon 
high temperatures around 5 degrees above normal. With jet axis 
well to the north however wind speeds should stay below the breezy 
category. 


Monday's trough will also amplify as it moves into the plains with 
increasing northerly wind component to its west advecting somewhat 
cooler Canadian air southward. Thus a cold front will pass 
southward across the County Warning Area Monday night with high pressure behind the 
front inducing cooler easterly winds. Temperatures Tuesday and 
Wednesday will accordingly be 5 to 10 degrees cooler. Otherwise 
landward wind trajectories will sustain inflow of dry air causing 
mostly sunny conditions into at least Wednesday. 


A bit of uncertainty exists for Thursday and Friday due to 
developing split flow. Models indicate high amplitude ridge will 
move across the Rocky Mountains while weak but broad upper low 
drifts eastward across Baja California and northern Mexico pulling moisture 
northward ahead of it. At moment model solutions indicate deeper 
moisture will stay south of the border with only a modest increase 
in middle and high clouds expected for the County Warning Area. Thus Thanksgiving and 
Friday should be dry with near normal temperatures. 


&& 


Aviation...valid 22/00z-23/00z... 
VFR conds through period. Upper trough will mv east of region tonight. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
dry weather...light winds and minimum humidity values in the teens 
to lower 20s will be on tap for Sunday and Monday in the wake of an 
upper level trough passage Saturday evening. A second trough passage 
north of the area is expected Monday night accompanied by a backdoor 
cold front. This will trim temperatures 5 to 10 degrees and raise 
humidities for Tuesday and Wednesday. 


Dry weather will persist through the week before an upper level 
trough develops over US or a little to our west for later next 
weekend with colder temperatures and perhaps some precipitation. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
El Paso 40 69 41 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Sierra Blanca Texas 37 68 38 69 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Las Cruces 36 69 38 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Alamogordo 38 67 33 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Cloudcroft 25 54 26 54 23 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Truth or Consequences 31 66 32 66 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Silver City 31 62 33 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Deming 33 70 34 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Lordsburg 32 70 34 69 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Epz watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


05 rogash/02 macblain