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fxus64 kmaf 081935 
afdmaf 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas 
235 PM CDT Friday Aug 8 2008 


Discussion... 
upper level ridge axis...currently positioned from svc to lax to 
lxn...will likely begin to flatten slightly over our region as 
shortwave troughs round the ridge over the southern High Plains. 
However...Pacific coast upper level trough will amplify/pinch overall 
appearance of the ridge over the northern plains with 850mb warm air advection over 
the northern rockies. This will lead to northerly flow over much of 
the plains and Midwest as another upper level trough is located over 
the northeast Continental U.S.. GFS appears to have the best handle on these 
features at this time...including weak cold front that has become quasi 
stationary over northern Texas into central la. As these waves 
continue to affect the Southern Plains...cold front may become 
enhanced again Sunday night into Monday morning and move south 
into West Texas and southeastern New Mexico late Monday into early 
Tuesday. The latest medium range guidance is generally in good 
agreement with this scenario...and for now we have increased probability of precipitation 
slightly across the northern Permian Basin and western Low Rolling 
Plains. If subsequent model runs remain consistent...probability of precipitation would 
need to be increased across the Permian Basin on Tuesday. 


Most of the extended period will be under the influence of upper 
level ridging and low level southerly flow...so temperatures during 
this time should remain near climatology with the exception of any cold air advection 
that may have an impact on the region due to frontal intrusion. 
This will largely be determined by the strength of the shortwave 
troughs moving through the northwest flow aloft. The European model (ecmwf) and GFS 
suggest that one aforementioned strong wave with associated colder 
850 temperatures may impact the region as early as Tuesday. This feature 
will need to be monitored closely through early next week...as the 
European model (ecmwf) is much cooler/moister than GFS and keeps flow northerly 
near boundary layer resulting in below climatology temperatures...increased 
cloud cover and increased probability of precipitation across the County Warning Area. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Big Spring Texas 72 98 74 99 / 10 10 10 10 
Carlsbad nm 71 98 71 100 / 10 10 10 20 
Dryden Texas 73 99 72 102 / 0 10 10 10 
Fort Stockton Texas 72 97 74 101 / 0 10 10 10 
Guadalupe Pass Texas 65 91 67 98 / 20 20 20 20 
Hobbs nm 70 97 70 98 / 10 10 10 20 
Marfa Texas 60 88 60 92 / 20 20 20 20 
Midland International Airport Texas 71 98 73 100 / 0 10 10 10 
Odessa Texas 73 99 74 100 / 0 10 10 10 
Wink Texas 73 102 74 104 / 10 10 10 10 


&& 


Maf watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 


&& 


$$ 


01/78/06