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fxus65 kabq 052047 
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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
247 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Discussion... 
currently...broad ridge aloft remains over New Mexico with core 
parked on northern border of the state and very low flow. Surface 
thermal low over the lower Colorado River valley helping general 
southerly low level flow with some very modest moisture intrusion. 
Convection today mainly a slope heating and diurnal temperature 
issue...with very little movement on storms once they develop. 
Weak shortwave scraping by north of the state may be too far north 
of have much impact. Expecting chief evening threat of Hydro 
problems...with taller storms chucking out some hail...and 
possible gusty winds spewing forth from microbursts. Terrain will 
help break up the pattern and limit storm coverage through the 
evening. 


Models...reasonable consensus aloft in a tough low flow 
regime through upcoming work week...retaining belt of ridge from 
tropical east Pacific to eastern Gulf of Mexico...with flow at 
lower levels remaining from the south and southeast. Gradual 
increase in moisture aloft will Herald broader and heavier shower 
pattern through upcoming work week with greatest intensity 
shifting eastward for late weekend and early work week...and this 
returning back to the west from midweek to the end of the week. 
Broad and general increases in precipitable water and lower level 
Theta-E will provide ingredients for more widespread afternoon and 
evening shower and thunderstorm pattern upcoming. 


Short term...tonight and Sunday...shortwave blip crossing from 
west to east along northern border may provide enough to touch off 
some evening convection over the northeast Highlands and northeast 
plains...and with ridge core moving to eastern New Mexico will 
expect upward tweak of precipitable waters up closer to an inch. 
Best MUCAPE Sunday extending over sangre Delaware cristos and northeast 
Highlands and back to the west and Southwest Mountains. Some 
capping Sunday may delay storm initiation...but cap break will 
Herald some more intense storms with wider coverage on the day. 
Continued low flow will result in reduced storm motions..with 
Hydro...hail...and gusty microburst winds remaining chief threat 
package. Temperatures seasonable for early July. 


Long term...Monday through Wednesday...temperatures seasonal 
through middle week. New Mexico square in The Saddle between ridge 
domes aloft and continued moisture upticks as southerly flow moves 
the juice northward. Better dissemination of moisture through the 
column will produce more uniform lapse rates and take edge off any 
capping inversions. Monday results will show most intense storms 
primarily east and south under The Saddle aloft...and boosts in 
precipitable waters over an inch will favor Hydro threats mainly 
east of Raton to Ruidoso axis as low flow aloft will minimize 
storm transport speeds. 


Into Tuesday...weak cold front dropping southward in wake of quick 
shortwave pinch moving across northern and northeast New Mexico 
will shift winds around to the east and temporarily shut off 
northbound low level moisture advection. With enough moisture in 
place already and Theta-E ridge setting up along Interstate 
40...will expect a more dynamic thunderstorm pattern with westward 
storm movement...MUCAPES near 2000 j per kg...and lifted indices 
falling to 4 below along roughly a Grants to Roy axis. 


Into Wednesday...saddle retreat westward with southeast low level 
flow will gradually turn moisture tap back on for the day with 
another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms. A tenth 
additional precipitable water will arrive in time to feed 
stronger showers and thunderstorms developing broadly from 
northeast plains to Southwest Mountains...with somewhat reduced 
intensity moving away from this axis. Gfs40 holding with MUCAPE 
topping 3000 j per kg with lifteds broadly falling to 2 below or 
less. Surface high over northeast plains will help maintain 
westward and northward storm transport once initiated during the 
day with continued Hydro and hail action for the day. 


Shy 


&& 


Aviation... 
isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue 
to develop off of the higher terrain...generally favoring the 
western two thirds of the state...although some activity is expected 
near the Raton Mesa and adjacent high country. Storms will move very 
slowly and erratically. Occasional MVFR conditions will affect taf 
sites within central and western areas along with gusty outflow 
winds and small hail. 


Shoemake 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 09z. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
high pressure aloft has weakened some and shifted eastward. Main 
result from this will be a slight increase in coverage of showers 
and thunderstorms...as well as a slower and more sporadic movement 
to individual storms today. As the high continues to shift east and 
weaken slightly more on Sunday...expect storms to begin to move to 
the north and northeast with a very slight increase in motion/speed. 
Forecast models are trending towards a slower/weaker arrival of the 
back door front expected late Monday night into early Tuesday. 
Current thinking is that this boundary will not make a great deal of 
modification to the overall sensible weather of the east. Only a 
slight uptick in low level moisture will intrude into the east by 
late Tuesday while a slight increase in precipitation develops along 
and near the frontal boundary through Tuesday evening. Temperatures 
across the forecast area will remain seasonal and a few moderate 
breezes will be seen in the eastern plains...but most wind concerns 
will remain confined to localized areas with thunderstorm outflows. 


Shoemake 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 62 92 60 94 / 5 10 5 5 
Gallup.......................... 55 86 54 89 / 5 10 10 10 
Grants.......................... 56 87 53 87 / 10 20 20 10 
Glenwood........................ 64 93 63 98 / 20 20 20 30 
Chama........................... 46 81 44 81 / 10 40 10 20 
Los Alamos...................... 58 83 55 84 / 20 20 10 10 
Red River....................... 43 76 41 74 / 30 40 20 30 
Taos............................ 53 85 50 85 / 30 30 10 20 
Santa Fe........................ 60 86 57 85 / 30 20 10 10 
Santa Fe Airport................ 60 88 57 88 / 20 20 10 10 
Espanola........................ 57 93 55 92 / 20 20 10 10 
Albuquerque heights............. 68 91 67 91 / 10 10 20 10 
Albuquerque valley.............. 64 91 62 92 / 10 10 30 10 
Albuquerque foothills........... 62 88 61 90 / 10 10 20 10 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 95 64 96 / 10 10 20 5 
Socorro......................... 63 91 63 92 / 5 10 20 10 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 53 82 52 84 / 10 20 20 10 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 56 87 55 87 / 10 20 10 10 
Carrizozo....................... 61 90 60 91 / 5 10 5 30 
Ruidoso......................... 55 81 54 80 / 5 30 10 40 
Raton........................... 56 86 52 84 / 10 30 20 30 
Las Vegas....................... 56 83 53 82 / 30 20 20 20 
Roy............................. 61 85 59 83 / 0 5 10 30 
Clayton......................... 63 90 62 86 / 0 5 5 30 
Santa Rosa...................... 61 91 60 90 / 5 5 5 20 
Tucumcari....................... 67 94 66 92 / 0 0 5 10 
Fort Sumner..................... 65 89 65 89 / 0 0 5 10 
Clovis.......................... 64 91 64 91 / 0 0 5 5 
Portales........................ 66 91 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 
Roswell......................... 67 92 70 93 / 0 0 5 5 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


Shy/52 

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