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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
300 am MDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Discussion... 
noticeable increase in convection on the way as the middle level high 
pressure center...which was near Farmington overnight...continues 
to drift eastward. Loop of water vapor imagery for the past 
several days depicts northward subtropical moisture 
seepage...which climbed into central Arizona by yesterday. Some of 
this moisture should be able to work its way into central and 
western nm with scattered thunderstorms each afternoon/evening through the 
weekend and into early next week. Some of these storms will be 
capable of producing heavy rain with minor flooding possible. 


By Monday nm will be loosely sandwiched between middle level highs centered 
over the lower mississipi valley and off teh California coast. This will 
open the door for more moisture to surge northward out of Mexico 
into the state. Timing of these surges is yet to be 
determined...but the flash flood threat looks to increase as the 
coming work week progresses. Latest GFS waffled on the back door 
cold front that could help trigger severe weather in the NE on 
Monday...but the NAM didnt. Thus...will continue to mention this 
possibility in hazardous weather outlook. 


44 


&& 


Aviation... 
just a few pockets of MVFR or IFR ceilings possible east plains 
S of Interstate 40 early to middle morning today...but with occasional 
MVFR conditions possible at taf sites near and west of central 
mountains. Again isolated to locally scattered showers and 
thunderstorms will develop and move slowly to the southwest or even 
west...bringing some potential this afternoon and evening for 
occasional MVFR conditions possible at taf sites near and west of 
Central Mountain chain. Gusty outflow winds and the potential for 
small hail will accompany any storms. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 21z. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
very slow and relatively minor changes expected over the next few 
days in the large scale weather pattern. With high pressure aloft 
centered near The Four Corners region...isolated to scattered 
showers and thunderstorms will push southwest this afternoon and 
into tonight with a decrease in activity by or shortly after dark. 
This high is now looking a little more likely to weaken somewhat 
through next couple of days which could give storms a slower and 
possibly more erratic movement today and...as this high gives way to 
some degree to an approaching rather weak low pressure trough aloft 
to the west...eventually a motion more toward the north by Sunday or 
Monday. This may bring some increase in shower and storm coverage. 
Otherwise...little change expected to temperatures... and wind 
concerns will remain focused on any small scale thunderstorm 
outflows. A weak cold front may still drop south across the 
northeastern plains later Monday night into Tuesday bringing some 
low low level moisture increase. An increase in showers and storms 
will also likely form near the front while an upper level weakness 
remains over New Mexico. This weakness will likely open the door to 
increased showers and thunderstorms over all of northern and central 
New Mexico. 






&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 95 61 92 60 / 20 20 20 10 
Gallup.......................... 88 54 86 54 / 30 20 20 20 
Grants.......................... 89 55 87 53 / 20 20 20 30 
Glenwood........................ 93 64 90 64 / 20 20 20 30 
Chama........................... 84 46 81 44 / 30 30 40 20 
Los Alamos...................... 86 58 84 55 / 30 20 20 30 
Red River....................... 79 43 77 41 / 30 30 30 30 
Taos............................ 89 53 86 49 / 20 20 30 30 
Santa Fe........................ 88 60 87 59 / 20 30 20 30 
Santa Fe Airport................ 91 60 89 57 / 20 30 20 30 
Espanola........................ 96 57 94 55 / 20 20 20 30 
Albuquerque heights............. 92 68 91 67 / 10 20 20 30 
Albuquerque valley.............. 92 64 92 62 / 10 20 20 30 
Albuquerque foothills........... 88 63 90 61 / 20 20 20 30 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 94 66 96 64 / 10 20 20 30 
Socorro......................... 91 63 91 63 / 10 20 20 30 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 83 53 83 52 / 20 30 20 30 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 88 57 87 55 / 20 30 20 30 
Carrizozo....................... 90 62 91 61 / 10 20 20 20 
Ruidoso......................... 82 55 81 54 / 20 20 20 20 
Raton........................... 90 55 85 52 / 20 10 20 20 
Las Vegas....................... 87 56 84 52 / 20 20 20 20 
Roy............................. 88 61 86 59 / 10 10 10 20 
Clayton......................... 93 63 90 61 / 10 10 10 20 
Santa Rosa...................... 92 61 91 60 / 10 10 10 20 
Tucumcari....................... 95 66 94 65 / 5 5 5 10 
Fort Sumner..................... 91 65 90 65 / 5 5 10 10 
Clovis.......................... 91 64 91 64 / 5 0 5 10 
Portales........................ 91 66 91 65 / 5 0 5 10 
Roswell......................... 93 67 91 70 / 0 0 5 10 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


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