847 
fxus64 kepz 211051 
afdepz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm 
346 am MST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Synopsis... 
a dry and mild pattern is in store for the Borderland over the next 
week. The main storm track will remain over the northern half of the 
U.S. With the Borderland remaining in a dry mostly west flow aloft 
with a series of troughs aloft moving past US. These troughs are too 
far north to bring much of anything other than a few higher clouds 
and afternoon breezes. Temperatures will remain above normal in this 
period. A bit deeper trough finally moves through the area Monday 
evening with a cold front at the surface. This will cool 
temperatures back to slightly below to near normal through 
Thanksgiving. 


&& 


Discussion... 
looks like a dry and mostly mild week ahead as the main storm track 
remains over the northern U.S. Pattern will still be active with 
several upper troughs moving across the norther U.S with just the 
bases of the troughs over our area for the most part. The first 
trough moves over The Rockies late tonight with perhaps just a few 
high clouds for US. Timing is bad for any significant winds as well 
late to use afternoon mixing. 


Second trough digs down a bit further south...over The Rockies 
Monday morning. This system is just a bit too fast to use the 
afternoon mixing...so again no significant winds likely from this. 
With this system digging further south it is able to drag a backdoor 
cold front to the County Warning Area. Again models showing little moisture with 
this but front will cool temperatures down Tuesday through 
Thanksgiving back to near normal or slightly below. 


Only other feature to be concerned with is sub tropical system 
moving from out near Hawaii and organizing west of the Baja California Tuesday 
and reaching the southern Baja California Wednesday. Fair amount of moisture 
associated with this as it moves over central Mexico on Friday it 
will pump moisture northward. However GFS shows deformation zone 
dropping south and becoming nearly stationary just south of our County Warning Area. 
This halts the moisture and rain not too far south of US. In fact 
quick look at 06z GFS run shows even stronger forcing by this 
deformation zone in keeping the moisture even further south than 
previous runs...still something to watch for. European model (ecmwf) in quite close 
agreement with this so will keep grids as is. 


&& 


Aviation...valid 21/12z-22/12z... 
VFR conditions expected through the period. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
an upper level disturbance passing by to the north will cause winds 
to pick up a bit for this afternoon and evening. Continued dry and 
mainly clear today through Monday with afternoon temperatures 
above normal. Minimum relative humidity will range from the middle 
teens to the lower twenties through the weekend. A cold front moving 
in Monday night will lower temperatures to near or a slightly below 
normal Tuesday. A developing low pressure over northern Baja California the 
second half of next week could bring increasing moisture up from the 
south...but any precipitation will most likely remain over northern 
Mexico. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
El Paso 68 40 69 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Sierra Blanca Texas 63 37 68 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Las Cruces 67 36 70 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Alamogordo 66 38 68 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Cloudcroft 53 25 55 27 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Truth or Consequences 66 31 67 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Silver City 62 31 63 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Deming 67 33 70 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Lordsburg 68 32 70 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Epz watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


17/Hefner