302 
fxus64 kepz 080851 
afdepz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm 
251 am MDT Friday Aug 8 2008 


Synopsis... 
moist unstable air will flow into southern New Mexico and western 
Texas through next week while upper disturbances and weak surface 
fronts move into the region. As a result there will be chances for 
showers and thunderstorms through the forecast period with locally 
heavy rains possible. 


&& 


Discussion... 
weather situation becoming more complex and as a result possibly 
more wet. Deep easterly flow transporting moist air into the County Warning Area 
this morning while inverted trough associated with old tropical 
disturbance is entering eastern New Mexico. Precipitable water is 
rather elevated near 1.4 and indicative of deep moisture content. 
Soundings are only weakly unstable with convective available potential energy expected from 500m 
to 1000 j/kg due to moist adiabatic profiles. However lack of 
convective inhibition and weak forcing ahead of inverted trough 
should generate scattered convection. Due to deep moisture 
isolated storms should drop heavy rains as entrainment will be 
minimal. 


On Saturday expect upper ridge axis will be aligned across 
northern New Mexico and this will allow weak upper waves to 
approach the County Warning Area from the east and southeast into next week. In 
addition GFS...WRF and European model (ecmwf) are showing hints of a weak back door 
front entering the region from the north by late Saturday with 
associated surface trough becoming almost stationary along Mexican 
border vicinity into early next week. Convergence along trough may 
act to initiate storms across the County Warning Area each day if this scenario 
evolves. Forecast soundings also show abundant moisture with 
precipitable water above 1.2 most of next week and convective available potential energy above 
1000 j/kg in the afternoon. Thus threat of showers and 
thunderstorms will persist through forecast period. 


&& 


Aviation... 
scattered areas of MVFR and isolated areas of IFR ceilings and 
visibilities in showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. 
Locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds possible with a few storms. 




&& 


Fire weather... 
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into 
the middle of next week with locally heavy rains occurring. As a 
result the fire danger should remain low most locations. Dry 
lightning also unlikely due to the moist air mass. Gusty winds may 
accompany a few thunderstorms..otherwise winds will remain 
generally light. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
El Paso 92 72 94 73 97 / 30 30 20 20 20 
Sierra Blanca Texas 86 65 89 66 95 / 30 30 20 20 20 
Las Cruces 92 68 95 70 97 / 30 30 30 20 20 
Alamogordo 88 68 90 68 95 / 30 30 20 20 30 
Cloudcroft 68 50 70 50 75 / 40 30 30 30 30 
Truth or Consequences 92 67 91 68 96 / 30 30 30 20 30 
Silver City 85 59 87 60 91 / 40 30 30 30 30 
Deming 90 66 91 68 94 / 30 30 30 30 20 
Lordsburg 95 66 96 68 98 / 30 30 30 30 30 


&& 


Epz watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


05 rogash