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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
252 am MDT Wednesday Aug 20 2008 


Discussion... 
a general decline in thunderstorm activity through the remainder of 
this week...with an increase in convection again over the weekend 
and early next week. 


Potent storm system along the Texas and OK border will begin to lift 
NE today while high pressure nudges in from the west. Meanwhile a weak 
upper level trough over nm will continue to slide slowly east. It will 
be over central nm this PM...helping to focus storms over the Central 
Mountain chain and eastern High Plains this PM and evening. Will continue 
with scattered probability of precipitation in these areas as well as the SW mountains. 


With increasing heights and thickness values for the remainder of 
the week...overall trend will be for warmer daytime temperatures and less 
convection. Only isolated probability of precipitation for Thursday and Friday favoring the higher 
terrain. A cold front is still expected to drop S into nm Friday night 
or Sat renewing the moisture supply. This should lead to an increase 
in showers and thunderstorms over the weekend and early next week 
along with a lowering of daytime temperatures. 40 


&& 


Aviation... 
areas of MVFR and spotty IFR ceilings are expected to persist along 
and east of the Central Mountain chain until middle to late morning... 
although model humidities indicate they could hang on until middle day in 
parts of the northeast. A surface trough will begin to develop on the 
plains tonight...and this should result in fewer low clouds tonight. 
The best chance for MVFR and spotty IFR ceilings tonight into 
Thursday morning will favor the area from lvs to cao...and also 
within counties along the Texas border. Isolated to perhaps scattered 
thunderstorms will again favor the Central Mountain chain and 
Southwest Mountains this aftn/eve...and most of this activity will 
move toward the south and southeast at speeds from 5 to 20 miles per hour. 
Models suggest a few thunderstorms will be possible all night long 
east of the Central Mountain chain. Cumulonimbus in tafs without ts or thunderstorms in the vicinity 
indicates a lower probability of thunderstorms and/or uncertainty 
about when storms may develop. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 21z. 44 


&& 


Fire weather... 
drier air will gradually spread from northwest to southeast across 
the forecast area through the next few days. With cloud cover 
gradually decreasing each day...temperatures will also warm. 
Recycling of residual moisture within the atmosphere however...will 
still continue in the form of hit and miss showers and thunderstorms 
favoring the higher terrain. Driest conditions will remain across 
the northwest third while the highest humidity readings will be 
found across the eastern third. Wind flow will gradually increase 
and will generally be west and northwest during the afternoon period 
across a large portion of western and central areas. Strengths 
however are not expected to be real strong. Just some occasional 
breeziness during the peak heating period. 


The weekend ahead still calls for a back door cold front to push 
into New Mexico...which could potentially increase moisture all of 
the way to the Continental Divide if the front is strong enough to 
push through the Central Mountain chain. Confidence is only 
moderate that this moisture push would be significant across western 
areas. Models forecast the upper high to build back over the state 
following the frontal push. This would essentially trap moisture 
underneath the high and allow recycling of this moisture in the form 
of showers and storms. 44 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 93 56 93 58 / 5 10 5 0 
Gallup.......................... 87 51 87 51 / 10 10 5 0 
Grants.......................... 86 50 89 52 / 10 10 5 0 
Glenwood........................ 90 57 91 57 / 20 20 5 10 
Chama........................... 82 43 81 44 / 20 10 10 0 
Los Alamos...................... 81 50 87 52 / 20 10 10 5 
Red River....................... 75 38 77 39 / 30 20 10 5 
Taos............................ 81 47 87 47 / 20 10 10 5 
Santa Fe........................ 83 53 88 57 / 20 10 10 5 
Santa Fe Airport................ 85 54 89 55 / 20 10 5 5 
Espanola........................ 85 51 92 53 / 20 10 5 5 
Albuquerque heights............. 88 64 91 66 / 20 10 5 0 
Albuquerque valley.............. 89 59 92 62 / 20 10 5 0 
Albuquerque foothills........... 86 60 88 62 / 20 10 5 0 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 89 62 91 64 / 20 10 5 5 
Socorro......................... 88 60 91 61 / 20 20 5 10 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 81 49 80 54 / 20 10 10 0 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 84 52 88 53 / 20 20 10 10 
Carrizozo....................... 87 57 92 58 / 20 20 5 10 
Ruidoso......................... 78 52 81 52 / 30 20 10 10 
Raton........................... 80 49 87 48 / 20 20 10 5 
Las Vegas....................... 79 50 85 52 / 20 20 10 5 
Roy............................. 79 55 85 58 / 20 20 5 5 
Clayton......................... 79 57 89 60 / 10 20 5 5 
Santa Rosa...................... 84 57 93 58 / 20 20 5 10 
Tucumcari....................... 84 61 95 64 / 10 20 5 5 
Fort Sumner..................... 85 62 94 64 / 20 20 5 5 
Clovis.......................... 85 62 93 64 / 10 20 5 5 
Portales........................ 85 62 91 65 / 10 20 5 5 
Roswell......................... 88 65 96 67 / 20 20 5 10 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


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