478 
fxus65 kabq 061000 
afdabq 


Area forecast discussion...corrected 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
305 am MDT sun Jul 6 2008 


Corrected to remove last line of discussion 


Discussion... 
the middle level high pressure center migrated to new mexicos eastern 
border overnight as an upper level trough began pushing into Utah. 
Cooling aloft from this trough should spell an uptick in 
convection for western and northern New Mexico today. 
Meanwhile...more isolated activity is expected on the eastern 
plains...with no storms expected on the far southeast plains. 
Increased cloud cover and the thermal trough aloft should help to 
cool temperatures a tad from saturdays seasonably warm readings. 


Monday...scattered to isolated showers and thunerstorms will 
persist as a weak moisture plume continues to rise into our area 
from Mexico. Although much of the forecast area has a shot at 
thunderstorms Monday afternoon...the focus for convection will 
favor the northeast Monday night as a back door cool front enters 
the state from the northeast. The upper level trough driving the 
wind shift will cross from Colorado to Kansas Monday night...and it may 
result in enough instability and shear in NE nm for a few severe 
thunderstorms Monday afternoon through Monday night. This wind 
shift may push into the Central Valley by late Tuesday and help to 
trigger scattered to possibly numerous showers and thunderstorms 
Tuesday afternoon and night from the west central and Southwest 
Mountains east and northeastward. Heavy rain will be possible from 
some of these storms...especially from our forecast areas southwest 
corner to our northeast corner. 


Wednesday through the weekend...daily rounds of scattered to at 
times numerous thunderstorms are expected...with the smallest 
chances in the northwest corner and the southeast corner. Moisture 
is expected to surge northward out of Mexico and drive these 
convective outbreaks...and timing will be easier to forecast as 
this period draws near. The threat for flash flooding will rise 
significantly with these convective outbreaks. 


44 


&& 


Aviation... 
isolated to scattered showers and storms will again 
first develop across the higher terrain today with the greatest 
coverage generally favoring the western third and north central 
portions of the state and as the day progresses The Lowlands in 
these areas will also see some spotty but significant precipitation. 
Storms will move slowly and erratically. Occasional MVFR conditions 
will affect taf sites more so within western and north central areas 
than elsewhere with gusty outflow winds and isolated instances of 
small hail. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 21z. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
high pressure aloft just west and northwest of the state weakened 
somewhat over the past 24 hours or so and shifted slightly eastward. 
Expect from this the coverage of showers and thunderstorms today to 
be similar or even a little greater than on Sat with a little more 
of a southwest to northeast movement especially across the northeast 
half to two thirds of the state. A weak windshift boundary entering 
northeast New Mexico Tuesday will not make a great deal of modification 
to the weather in the east. Only a slight uptick in low level 
moisture will intrude into the east by late Tuesday while a slight 
increase in precipitation develops along and near the frontal 
boundary through Tuesday evening. Temperatures across the forecast 
area will remain seasonal and a few moderate breezes will be seen in 
the eastern plains...but most wind concerns will remain confined to 
localized areas with thunderstorm outflows. Expect a little higher 
afternoon relative humidity as the week progresses with at most locations better 
nighttime recoveries. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 93 62 94 61 / 10 10 10 10 
Gallup.......................... 86 56 86 55 / 20 20 20 20 
Grants.......................... 86 55 84 54 / 20 20 30 20 
Glenwood........................ 90 66 90 65 / 20 20 20 20 
Chama........................... 81 46 80 45 / 30 30 30 20 
Los Alamos...................... 83 56 82 55 / 20 20 30 20 
Red River....................... 76 43 73 41 / 30 30 30 20 
Taos............................ 85 52 84 51 / 20 20 30 20 
Santa Fe........................ 86 59 83 57 / 20 20 30 30 
Santa Fe Airport................ 88 59 86 58 / 20 20 30 30 
Espanola........................ 93 57 90 58 / 20 20 20 20 
Albuquerque heights............. 91 68 89 67 / 20 20 30 30 
Albuquerque valley.............. 91 63 90 62 / 20 20 30 30 
Albuquerque foothills........... 88 62 88 61 / 20 20 30 30 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 95 65 94 64 / 20 20 30 20 
Socorro......................... 90 65 89 64 / 10 20 30 20 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 82 53 83 49 / 20 20 30 30 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 87 56 85 55 / 20 20 30 30 
Carrizozo....................... 90 60 90 62 / 10 20 20 20 
Ruidoso......................... 81 54 79 55 / 20 20 30 20 
Raton........................... 87 56 84 54 / 10 20 30 20 
Las Vegas....................... 84 55 81 53 / 10 20 30 30 
Roy............................. 85 60 83 59 / 0 10 20 30 
Clayton......................... 90 63 86 63 / 5 10 10 30 
Santa Rosa...................... 92 61 89 60 / 0 10 20 20 
Tucumcari....................... 94 66 93 66 / 0 5 5 10 
Fort Sumner..................... 89 65 89 66 / 0 10 10 10 
Clovis.......................... 90 64 91 65 / 0 5 5 10 
Portales........................ 90 66 90 66 / 0 5 0 10 
Roswell......................... 92 68 92 70 / 0 5 10 10 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


44/43