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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
242 am MST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Discussion... 
shortwave ridging overhead this morning will gradually weaken 
and shift eastward today. Upper level flow will transition to 
southwest today and tonight as a trough of low pressure approaches 
from the west. Most noticeable effects from this system will be 
gusty winds to the Lee of the Central Mountain chain this 
afternoon. Down-slope component to the wind will help boost 
temperatures some 5 to 10 degrees above normal over the eastern 
half of the County warning forecast area with around 5 degrees above normal expected for 
the central and west. See fire weather discussion below for 
critical fire weather potential. 


The trough will pass the region to the north tonight but will 
likely drive a weak cold front through the state overnight leading 
to somewhat cooler conditions on Sunday. The next and stronger 
trough is forecast to move across The Rockies and pass to the 
north of the state Sunday night into Monday. Will continue to 
side toward the GFS which keeps the bulk of any precipitation 
over Colorado. Increasing flow aloft and some orographic lift 
could still be enough for some light snow shower activity over 
the northern mountains close to the Colorado border Sunday and 
the first part of Monday but little to no accumulation is 
expected. While the bulk of precipitation will be held to the 
north of the region...the NAM-WRF model depicts strong 700mb winds 
of 50 to 60 kts developing on the eastern slopes of the sangres 
with 30-40kts to the east of the Sandia Manzano range. This could 
lead to breezy to even some windy conditions during Monday. This 
will need to be monitored over the next day or two. 


Another cold front will push through Monday night into Tuesday 
morning with some slightly cooler air filtering into the state 
for Tuesday. Northwest flow aloft kicks in for Tuesday with 
a weak trough passage indicated for Tuesday night into Wednesday. 
Moisture will be scarce with this passage and am not expecting 
anything more than some middle and high level clouds. Conditions 
still look dry and mild right through the Thanksgiving Holiday 
and into the weekend as high pressure remains the dominant 
feature. 


Kw 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions prevail all airports. No aviation weather hazards for 
the next 24 hours. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 22z. Guyer 


&& 


Fire weather... 
excellent relative humidity recoveries developed this morning across valley locales 
over the northern quarter of the state. Clear skies...light winds... 
and dry air have allowed thermal inversions to develop once again... 
with the strongest located from the west central mts and valleys 
northward across the northwest plateau and Highlands. 


A fast moving upper trough axis will move east over the northern third 
of nm today...allowing a surface Lee trough to strengthen over the 
eastern plains. Went slightly above met/mav MOS guidance winds in 
the area between Clines Corners...Las Vegas...and Tucumcari and 
slightly below on dewpoint values and still managed to fall below 
critical fire weather criteria for this afternoon. Significant 
upper level cloud cover developing eastward from the Great Basin 
is underestimated by 00z model runs therefore mixing is expected 
to be weaker than earlier anticipated. The strongest surface 
pressure gradient also appears to be before noon. Ventilation 
rates will still be better today...with widespread good to very 
good in most locales. 


Slightly cooler air behind this first upper wave will allow min relative humidity 
values to trend higher for Sunday...particularly across the northern 
tier. Weak mixing once again will force ventilation back into the 
poor to fair region...except for perhaps the northeast plains where 
good conditions are possible. 


The next large scale upper wave will push into the central rockies 
Sunday night...with strong ridge top winds developing over the 
northern mts. Computer models continue to struggle with the position 
of the upper wave through Monday. At this time it appears there is 
only slight chances of any measurable rain/snow across the northern 
mts/northeast plains...however widespread improved relative humidity recoveries are 
likely. The main feature with this next system will be gusty winds 
behind a decent cold front pushing south across the state Monday 
night. Maximum temperatures Tuesday will be slightly cooler as a result. 


The remainder of the week looks rather benign at this point with 
continued clear skies...dry air...and light winds. 


Guyer 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 56 24 52 25 / 0 0 0 0 
Dulce........................... 52 17 48 17 / 0 0 0 0 
Cuba............................ 54 19 50 19 / 0 0 0 0 
Gallup.......................... 57 17 54 18 / 0 0 0 0 
El Morro........................ 55 17 51 19 / 0 0 0 0 
Grants.......................... 59 15 56 18 / 0 0 0 0 
Quemado......................... 60 20 57 21 / 0 0 0 0 
Glenwood........................ 67 28 66 33 / 0 0 0 0 
Chama........................... 46 12 43 11 / 0 0 0 5 
Los Alamos...................... 54 22 50 21 / 0 0 0 0 
Pecos........................... 55 23 51 25 / 0 0 0 0 
Cerro/Questa.................... 50 12 47 12 / 0 0 0 0 
Red River....................... 42 17 39 19 / 0 0 0 5 
Angel Fire...................... 46 17 42 19 / 0 0 0 0 
Taos............................ 53 14 48 15 / 0 0 0 0 
Espanola........................ 60 20 55 25 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Fe........................ 54 24 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Fe Airport................ 56 25 52 26 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque foothills........... 58 29 56 30 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque heights............. 59 32 57 33 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque valley.............. 61 27 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 60 28 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 
Los Lunas....................... 63 23 61 29 / 0 0 0 0 
Rio Rancho...................... 60 28 58 31 / 0 0 0 0 
Socorro......................... 66 28 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 58 29 53 30 / 0 0 0 0 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 59 26 55 27 / 0 0 0 0 
Clines Corners.................. 57 26 51 29 / 0 0 0 0 
Gran Quivira.................... 61 29 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 
Carrizozo....................... 65 34 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 
Ruidoso......................... 58 28 56 36 / 0 0 0 0 
Capulin......................... 59 23 51 24 / 0 5 0 0 
Raton........................... 60 23 53 23 / 0 0 0 0 
Las Vegas....................... 61 25 53 27 / 0 0 0 0 
Clayton......................... 64 31 55 31 / 0 0 0 0 
Roy............................. 63 29 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 
Conchas......................... 70 30 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Rosa...................... 70 32 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 
Tucumcari....................... 70 29 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 
Clovis.......................... 69 33 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 
Portales........................ 69 30 65 32 / 0 0 0 0 
Fort Sumner..................... 71 31 65 32 / 0 0 0 0 
Roswell......................... 72 31 70 33 / 0 0 0 0 
Picacho......................... 72 32 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 
Elk............................. 67 33 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


17/guyer 

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