450 
fxus64 kepz 050929 
afdepz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm 
329 am MDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Synopsis... 
isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms with temperatures 
near normal will be the rule through the weekend. As the upcoming 
week progresses...southeast flow will become deeper and more 
moist. Thunderstorms will be on the increase with a peak in the 
activity late in the week. A slight cooling trend will take place 
as well. 


&& 


Discussion... 
we are in sort of a lull with thunderstorm activity. The question 
is...how long? Middle levels have warmed a little...only a few storms 
developed Friday in spite plentiful moisture. They were gone by 
sunset which was great for the fireworks displays. Previously 
thought this would hold at least into Tuesday but... 


The GFS model has been all over the place with various features 
that will affect our weather after the weekend...but the 00z run 
is more in line with the NAM and European model (ecmwf). With various timing they 
all try to form an upper level high east of our area. This would 
be truly monsoonal. A couple of inverted troughs are brought in 
from the southeast to add to the fun...along with a hint of a 
backdoor front by the GFS which seems to put a bit more emphasis 
on the westerlies to our north. Stronger short waves passing by to 
the north would give US a better chance for a backdoor front to 
focus rising motion. 


Still wary of model inconsistency (especially the GFS within 
itself) so increased probability of precipitation a just a little earlier and boosted probability of precipitation 
later in the period only slightly. First inverted trough nearing 
the area Sunday makes ME nervous...and 06z NAM (just in) does not 
console ME much. Will keep isolated coverage for thunderstorms 
through Tuesday for now. Confidence level higher from Wednesday 
on...namely a more active thunderstorm period. It's not often that 
the extended forecast seems more clear than the short term! 


&& 


Aviation...valid 05/12z-06/12z... mostly VFR through the 
period...though isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon 
and evening will cause MVFR to IFR conditions with locally heavy 
rain and gusty winds. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
high pressure aloft is slowly aligning east to west over New 
Mexico and Arizona...and will remain so through Sunday. This 
should result in less thunderstorm activity. Winds will generally 
be light the next few days...but strong and gusty near any 
thunderstorms. Indications are now that another upper level high 
will build east of New Mexico and West Texas by the middle of next 
week...increasing the chance for shower and thunderstorm activity. 
However...a weather disturbance approaching from the southeast 
needs to be monitored for an upswing in thunderstorms as early as 
Monday. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
El Paso 96 72 97 73 97 / 10 20 10 20 10 
Sierra Blanca Texas 93 65 92 67 92 / 10 20 10 20 10 
Las Cruces 96 69 96 70 97 / 10 20 10 20 10 
Alamogordo 96 65 95 67 95 / 10 20 10 20 10 
Cloudcroft 72 50 73 51 73 / 20 20 20 20 20 
Truth or Consequences 97 65 96 67 94 / 10 20 10 20 10 
Silver City 89 61 89 60 87 / 20 20 20 20 20 
Deming 96 66 97 68 97 / 10 20 10 20 10 
Lordsburg 96 67 96 69 97 / 10 20 10 20 10 


&& 


Epz watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


01/01 fausett