799 
fxus61 kphi 201917 
afdphi 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey 
317 PM EDT Wednesday Aug 20 2008 


Synopsis... 
a large area of high pressure will remain in control of our weather 
through the weekend. Our next weather maker is expected to be a cold 
front which is expected to cross the region Sunday night or Monday. 


&& 


Near term /through Thursday/... 
high pressure from north of New York state down across the middle 
Atlantic region will continue to supply our forecast area with 
mostly clear skies and seasonably cooler temperatures through 
Thursday. Tonight will see the coolest temperatures of this 
weather regime with readings dropping into the 40s and 50s. 
With plenty of sunshine Thursday, temperatures will begin to 
rebound with highs reaching the middle 70s to low 80s. This is 
still several degrees below normal for the date. The humidity 
will also remain quite low, providing US with another very 
pleasant day. 


&& 


Short term /Thursday night through Friday night/... 
the high pressure system will drift slowly south and east, continuing 
to provide US with fair dry weather through Friday night. Temperatures 
will slowly rise as the airmass begins to moderate. Lows Thursday 
night will be in the upper 40s to around 60. Highs Friday in the 
upper 70s to middle 80s. Lows Friday night in the 50s to middle 60s. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/... 
the high pressure system will drift slowly east over the weekend, 
but will continue to provide fair weather to our area as we begin 
to experience a return flow on the backside of the system. 
Southern portions of the forecast area will see an onshore flow, 
while northern portions will have a southwest flow. This will 
produce a few more clouds in the south as moisture comes in off 
the ocean. The next chance for precipitation will occur as a cold 
front approaches late Sunday. The front will move slowly across 
our area late Sunday night and Monday and then move away Monday 
night and Tuesday. The best chance for measurable rainfall will be 
late Sunday night into early Monday night. The front will drop south 
of our area Monday night, but could become stationary Tuesday into 
Wednesday. With this being the case, will keep slight chance probability of precipitation 
in our southern areas for the possibility of a few pop up showers. 
Temperatures will rise back to normal over the weekend with Sunday 
seeing the highest readings. The heating will be limited by the 
onshore flow in the south and along the coast. High pressure to our 
north will begin to push back in Tuesday into Wednesday providing 
a fresh batch of slightly cooler and drier air to northern portions 
of the forecast area. And of course there is Fay, churning her way 
slowly across the south. It appears that if the remnants of the 
storm will reach our area, it would be sometime in the Wednesday 
night to Friday time frame. But that is still a long time off, 
so stay tuned. 


&& 


Climate/... 
a chilly night and early Thursday morning is in store for many 
locales. While the record low temperatures for Thursday morning are 
anticipated to be safe, here are the current record lows for August 
21st as a reference. 


Mount Pocono....34 in 1908. 
Allentown.......45 in 2000. 
Reading.........44 in 1977. 
Trenton.........49 in 2000. 
Philadelphia....54 in 1949. 
Wilmington......50 in 1949. 
Atlantic City...49 in 1995. 
Georgetown......46 in 1976. 


&& 


Aviation /19z Wednesday through Monday/... 
a few fair weather cumulus clouds developed during the day for the 
southern half of the area, but will quickly disappear this evening 
and overnight allowing for clear skies. As high pressure moves over 
top of the area tonight, winds should become light and variable. 
Winds may begin to pick up out of the east to southeast during the 
day Thursday, but still remain light. A few fair weather cumulus 
clouds may develop again tomorrow, but should not hinder any flight 
concerns. 


Outlook... 
high pressure will remain in control of the weather for much of this 
week, keeping the weather fairly benign. 


&& 




Marine... 
as high pressure continues to build into the region, a steady 
northeast flow will remain across the waters for much of this 
evening. Until the high centers itself across the area, there will 
be a slight pressure gradient, which will help keep the winds 
slightly elevated, but below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Seas 
will also remain near the 4 foot mark, but should remain below small 
craft criteria. If the seas do reach 5 ft, it should not be very 
long before they come back down as the high builds over the waters 
late tonight and early Thursday. After high pressure builds into the 
region, it will remain in control of the weather through much of the 
week, so winds and waves are not expected to reach Small Craft 
Advisory criteria, at least through the weekend. Winds will 
gradually shift to the east and southeast as high pressure shifts to 
the east during the forecast period. A cold front may approach the 
region by early next week, which may increase the winds and waves in 
addition to bring showers and thunderstorms to the area. 


&& 


Climate... 
a chilly night and early Thursday morning is in store for many 
locales. While the record low temperatures for Thursday morning are 
anticipated to be safe, here are the current record lows for August 
21st as a reference. 


Mount Pocono....34 in 1908. 
Allentown.......45 in 2000. 
Reading.........44 in 1977. 
Trenton.........49 in 2000. 
Philadelphia....54 in 1949. 
Wilmington......50 in 1949. 
Atlantic City...49 in 1995. 
Georgetown......46 in 1976. 


&& 


Phi watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New Jersey...none. 
Delaware...none. 
Maryland...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...rpw 
near term...rpw 
short term...rpw 
long term...rpw 
aviation...Robertson 
marine...Robertson 
climate...gorse