241 
fxus61 kgyx 081925 
afdgyx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
325 PM EDT Friday Aug 8 2008 


Synopsis... 
a broad area of low pressure located over New England this 
afternoon will slowly lift northeast into Canada tonight through 
Sunday...followed by another low tracking across New England on 
Monday. Low pressure will remain in the vicinity of New England for 
most of next week resulting in more unsettled weather. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
the flood potential continues to be the primary concern in the 
short term. Please see the hydrology discussion below for details. 


Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed over New 
Hampshire and parts of western Maine this afternoon. Expect these 
storms to continue to develop and move northeast across the 
forecast area this evening. Some of these thunderstorms could 
produce hail and heavy downpours. The convection should start to 
diminish later tonight bringing an end to the flood threat for now. 


The mav/met MOS temperature guidance looked a couple of degrees 
too cool again tonight so forecast low temperatures are a few 
degrees warmer than guidance. 


&& 


Short term /Saturday/... 
we should finally catch a break from all of the wet weather 
tomorrow. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could still develop 
over the mountains...but most of the area should see at least some 
sunshine and more seasonable temperatures. Mav/met MOS temperature 
guidance looked reasonable and were used for the high temperature 
forecast. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday night through Friday/... 
the upper level long wave trough remains in the east so cutoff lows continue to 
form and drop southeastward into the NE. This will continue the 
unstable and unsettled weather through the long term. There will be brief 
breaks in the unsettled weather in between each cutoff as a weak ridge 
aloft and at the surface moves through. Concerns about the potential for 
flooding continue through the long term...especially with antecedent 
conditions so wet and water levels so high. Used the gfs40 and mav 
MOS for Saturday night through Sunday night then used gmos for the rest 
of the long term forecast. 


&& 


Aviation /19z Friday through Wednesday/... 
in the short term...variable conditions expected this evening with 
scattered thunderstorms developing over New Hampshire and 
spreading into western Maine this evening. Look for conditions to 
deteriorate to IFR most locations after sunset. Conditions improve 
to VFR by middle morning Saturday. 


Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...unsettled weather with a 
chance of rain showers and thunderstorms and rain will produce lower conditions at times at the 
taf sites. Best chance for prcp will be late Sunday into Monday. 


&& 


Marine... 
in the short term...winds will continue to gust to 20 knots 
through this evening but winds and seas are expected to remain 
below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Saturday. 


Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...a weak pressure 
pattern will keep winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory levels through the long term. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
have extended the flash flood and flood watches through 11 PM 
tonight to cover the potential for localized heavy downpours 
associated with scattered thunderstorms that are developing over 
the forecast area this afternoon. Much of the area is saturated 
from recent rainfall. Localized rainfall amounts of an inch or 
more in any thunderstorms could result in additional flooding. 
Please see our Flood Watch product...pwmffagyx...for details. 


A Flood Warning continues for the Kennebec river at Skowhegan. 
Please see our Flood Warning product...pwmflwgyx...for details. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for mez007-012- 
018>028. 
Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for mez008-009-013- 
014. 
New Hampshire...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for nhz001>010- 
013-014. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$