695 
fxus63 kgid 051950 
afdgid 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Hastings NE 
250 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Short term...tonight through 12z Monday...question is if there will 
be more storms tonight. 18z surface chart would put a warm front 
generally along a klbf to ksln line. Would expect this to lift north 
and/or wash out tonight. But if it holds together and with a 40+ 
knot low level jet nosing into the area and some 1000-2000 cape 
prognosticated in the area ... see some storms. Feel the best area 
will be in the northern portion of the County Warning Area and have added some low 
probability of precipitation there after midnight. Will have to see how the boundary does 
with time and this area may need to be expanded south and west. 
Surface winds are to stay up somewhat tonight and with warm air 
advection continuing with the low level jet...overnight lows should 
hold around 70. Any overnight convection will have impact on 
forecast for Sunday. Expecting south wind to continue over the area 
but could have quite a bit of cloud cover...especially in the 
morning. This will give temperatures a slow start. But expect the sun to 
come up by afternoon and highs to be in the upper 80s north to 
around 100 south as drier air will push into that part of the 
forecast area. Another surface boundary should start to push into 
the north during the afternoon as an area of low pressure 
strengthens in western Kansas. Cape values of 3000+ and some decent 
shear...especially near the boundary will spell a chance for storms 
to the area by Sunday afternoon. Some of these storms could be 
rather decent with the primary risk being large hail. Continued 
upper support will drift over the region Sunday night and surface 
boundary not expected to move too far. Again a good low level jet 
will be directed right across the boundary. So risk of storms 
remains in forecast Sunday night. 


Long term...12z Monday through Saturday. Main forecast concerns 
will be chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon and night. 


An upper wave moves through the plains on Monday while a surface 
low and cold front moves through. Expect that there will be some 
thunderstorms along and behind the front Monday afternoon and 
overnight. From Tuesday through Thursday there is northwest flow 
across the region. With the northwest flow there are a few weak 
short waves that move through but do not expect anything more than a 
few clouds with the waves. Late in the week the flow turns more 
zonal as a wave moves through the northern stream...but there 
continues to be no precipitation. Another low pressure system moves 
through the region on Saturday. Models have some differences in 
timing the surface boundary through the region. Will leave the 
forecast dry for now due to the uncertainty. Temperatures through 
the period will be at or just above average. 


&& 


Gid watches/warnings/advisories... 
NE...none. 
Kansas...none. 
&& 


$$