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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service North Platte NE 
344 am CDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Discussion... 
early morning convection firing in the typical northwest flow pattern with 
ridge amplified over rockies at this time. Water vapor loop shows ncentral 
Nebraska convection tied into wave that kicked off initial conveciton 
over Montana rockies this afternoon. Also seems to be some enhancement 
from upper jet maximum looking at local profiler network and even low level 
convergence per vwp winds around 5-6kft mean sea level. Also looks to be a 
moisture axis in vicinity per GOES derived products. Looks like this 
convection should leak out of County Warning Area by issuance time so will leave 
probability of precipitation out at this time but continue to monitor. Other interesting phenomena 
was heat burst out in western Panhandle with dying showers from 
earlier convection in western North.Platte valley. Upper ridge will be 
Delaware-amplified by wave now moving across Montana/Alberta rockies and will be 
progressing just north of Continental U.S. Border through the day. Associated surface 
trough/front now in southeast Montana will be moving into western County Warning Area today with 
elevated thermal ridge in place allowing temperatures to most likely hit 
triple digits from vtn to iml and westward where there will be some 
westerly component to low level wind field. Again liked a NAM 2m/met 
guidance blend for temperatures today. This boundary looks to be a focus 
for high based storms later today. Vicinity of upper ridge and limited 
instability looks to keep severe threat to a minimum...however to the 
east ahead of boundary...southerly winds will continue to advect 
low level moisture into ncentral zones. Not sure believe NAM surface dew 
points in the low to middle 70s leading to extreme cape values. Cap is 
a bit stronger over this way and expect better coverage north into 
South Dakota. Have kept probability of precipitation in the isolated range for now...but if 
storms get organized enough BUFKIT profiles indicated organized 
multicell/Bow could be possible. Front looks to settle across Kansas/NE 
border by Sunday afternoon...farther south than past few solutions. But 
moisture pooling along front would favor the highest probability of precipitation across 
southern and eastern County Warning Area in the evening. Looks like another complex 
should get going across NE Colorado with easterly low level flow in 
place. NAM moves this across western County Warning Area in 00z run...but some 
convective feedback seemed to be involved in this model and GFS as 
well so have kept only slight probability of precipitation in for now. The zonal flow 
continues across northern Continental U.S. And next stronger wave looks to move 
through flow Monday. As a result front stalled near our southern 
border looks to lift into ncentral zones ahead of wave...and have 
place highest probability of precipitation in eastern County Warning Area. Lots of unknown variable between 
now and middle week so have not made to many changes. 


&& 


Aviation... 
southerly winds will increase through the day as a weak front pushes 
to a kvtn...koga line by 01z. Showers and thunderstorms will develop 
along this front by late afternoon and continue through the evening. 
VFR conditions will persist with ceilings generally above 10k until 
after 00z sun where ceilings may lower to 8k near thunderstorms. 


&& 


Lbf watches/warnings/advisories...none 




$$ 


13/ddb