548 
fxus63 kgld 300830 
afdgld 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas 
230 am MDT Sat Aug 30 2008 


Discussion... 
230 am MDT Sat Aug 30 2008 


Main forecast concerns will be wind and chance of precipitation into 
the beginning of next week. Satellite showing the pattern has begun 
to change over the last 24 hours. The flow still remains progressive 
at this time. However it is becoming more amplified over the central 
and eastern Pacific. Near 100 meter height falls are already moving 
into the Pacific northwest. Broad ridge still remains in control over 
the southwest and south central portion of the country with numerous 
shortwave troughs rotating around ridge and embedded within the 
ridge. 


One such shortwave trough is located from eastern New Mexico into 
western Nebraska and is drawing good middle level moisture with it. 
Also earlier and current convection is firing on a vary subtle 
trough/moisture/instability axis that runs from southwest Kansas into 
east central Colorado. Drier air above 700 mb appears to be holding 
back the northern extent of the storms. Also thunderstorm cluster 
over southeast Colorado appears to have developed a convectively 
induced circulation and also throwing out outflow boundaries. Ill 
defined old frontal boundary still remains from Oklahoma to near 
southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico. 


NAM is catching subtle/small jet moving across central Colorado at 
this time where the GFS/UKMET do not see it. Satellite would indicate 
the models far east and not amplified enough with central Pacific 
upper trough. Otherwise models are doing very well with the shortwave 
features...especially close to US. The NAM and UKMET initialized the 
best on upper trough moving into the Pacific northwest and southwest 
Canada. 


Once again the NAM/European model (ecmwf) were doing the best on the surface wind 
field. Models were similar/close on low level temperatures. Will go 
with a blend of persistance...latest trends/biases...and models. 


Today/tonight...at 12z the NAM puts the area in a weak left front 
quadrant and then moves it south through 18z. Even though the 
GFS/UKMET do not have the jet as strong they are showing the same 
thing with their left front quadrant a little further north and 
west. Then all three models similar in taking a jet axis across the 
central and southern portion of the area through the rest of the 
afternoon. 


Current activity is fading but will leave in a slight chance this 
morning to account for lingering lift and instability. Day shift 
had right idea. Have just tweeked that area based on latest guidance. 


Lift and instability lift north and east during the night. NAM/UKMET 
is showing right rear quadrant over the northern and eastern portion 
of the area. However...GFS is showing a couplet jet structure 
affecting the entire forecast area through the middle of the night. 
So pulled tonights slight chance a little further east. 


Will once again go underneath the too warm mav and closer to the 
met/various 2 meter output. Gradient increases today. Will get windy 
especially in the west and could get close to advisory criteria. 
Will up winds there to just below criteria. 


Sunday/Sunday night...latest guidance currently supports windy 
forecast and advisory. May be a need to lengthen the advisory a 
little and one more row of counties and will brief day crew on that. 
Where there will be no advisory...winds will be just below advisory 
criteria. 


Models say air mass will be capped during the day. But otherwise 
can see no reason some storms could not fire in the west late. 
Added a slight chance there. First in a series of shortwaves moves... 
especially after 06z. Cannot rule out some storms firing during 
this time...especially after what happened last evening. Will insert 
a slight chance for the night. 


Monday/Monday night...current guidance supported Monday forecast. 
However...did increase area of chance probability of precipitation based on the latest 
guidance/similarity of solutions. Currently looks windy on Monday 
as day shift expected. Surface trough does push closer during the 
afternoon. At this time...will raise winds to just under criteria 
and let the day shift go from there. 


Tuesday...based on what little have looked...forecast looks fine for 
this day and will probably only tweek based on amount of time I 
have. 


Thanks to all for collaboration. 


Buller 
&& 
aviation... 
1107 PM MDT Friday Aug 29 2008 


For the 06z tafs... moisture axis this evening will be along the 
Kansas and Colorado border. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible 
in the axis...but have dissipated as they move north. For this 
reason will not carry any ts in the tafs. Towards sunrise...RUC 
developing some low ceilings in the same moisture axis. Surface dew 
point depressions are running rather low...so will put some low 
confidence ceilings at kgld. No aviation problems expected at kmck. 


24 
&& 


Gld watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...Wind Advisory from 9 am MDT /10 am CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ 
Sunday for ksz001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042. 


NE...Wind Advisory from 9 am MDT /10 am CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ 
Sunday for nez079-080. 


Colorado...Wind Advisory from 9 am to 7 PM MDT Sunday for coz090>092. 


&& 


$$