300 
fxus63 kgid 240858 
afdgid 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Hastings NE 
358 am CDT Thursday Jul 24 2008 


Discussion...no significant changes in the overall upper pattern 
over the Continental U.S....with 00z upper air observations and satellite 
data continuing to show a ridge over The Rockies with troughing 
over both coasts. Ridge not quite as amplified as the past few 
days thanks to disturbances passing through...but still enough to 
bring northwesterly flow to the region. At the surface...area of 
low pressure remains over eastern Colorado up through southern NE...with 
a boundary draped down into eastern Kansas and another over the High 
Plains and into South Dakota. Profiler data show a 40-45kt low level jet across the 
area and nosing into northeastern NE/southeastern South Dakota...aiding in 
the development of an area of showers and thunderstorms. While the 
bulk of the action is expected to remain NE of the County Warning Area...cannot 
rule out an isolated shower/thunderstorm here. 


Main forecast concern through the rest of the week and into the 
weekend continues to lie with precipitation chances...as the 
pattern aloft continues to send disturbances over the region and 
bring chances for thunderstorms each day. 


For today...expecting most of the morning/afternoon hours to be dry 
once the isolated showers/thunderstorms currently going on move out 
of the area. Next chance for convection comes later this 
afternoon...as another upper level disturbance helps to push a 
surface front south into the Central Plains. Models in good 
agreement with this front having a SW/NE orientation out from the 
low over eastern Colorado/western Kansas up through Nebraska by 00z tonight. 
This front provides a focus for thunderstorm development later 
this afternoon...and activity is expected to continue into the 
overnight hours as the low level jet gets cranked up across the 
region. Did increase probability of precipitation some across the County Warning Area...with best chances 
across the eastern areas. Moisture availability not a 
concern...and while models vary on the magnitude of instability 
and shear across the County Warning Area...potential is there for storms to become 
strong/severe. 


Expecting the area to catch a break for part of Friday as 
precipitation moves off to the east...but it would be shortlived. 
Surface boundary which moves into the region today looks to meander 
around the area...providing a focus for convection as weak quick 
moving disturbances continue passing overhead. Models in good 
agreement with initial action starting over the High Plains...and 
moving east across the region overnight. Pattern continues on 
Saturday...as models show the surface boundary continuing across 
the plains...but do differ on the exact placement. While 
expecting a good portion of Saturday to be dry with most of the 
action taking place during the late evening/overnight/early 
morning hours...with the boundary in the vicinity cannot 
completely rule out precipitation during the day so kept in small 
probability of precipitation. For both Friday and Saturday...conditions are favorable for 
some thunderstorms to be on the strong/severe side...and the County Warning Area 
is outlooked both days. As is the case today...main hazards would 
be with large hail...winds...and heavy rain. 


As far as temperatures go...no real air mass changes to speak 
of...so not expecting big changes in highs. With plenty of moisture 
across the area...the warm muggy days continue...with highs reaching 
into the middle 80s/near 90 south and middle/upper 90s/few lower 100s 
across the south. 


No changes made to Sunday and beyond. 


&& 


Aviation...06z kgri taf. Generally VFR conditions expected. 
Possible period of thunderstorms Thursday evening which is 
indicated in a probability group. 


&& 


Gid watches/warnings/advisories... 
NE...none. 
Kansas...none. 
&& 


$$