735 
fxus63 kgid 181741 
afdgid 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Hastings NE 
1241 PM CDT Friday Jul 18 2008 


Aviation...18z taf. MVFR ceilings are expected through the afternoon 
at the kgri Airport. There will be some lifting of ceilings this 
evening to VFR levels...but then back down to MVFR ceilings and visibilities 
in haze/br overnight. Winds will be light and variable initially... 
and gradually turn to the south. Risk for additional showers/storms 
looks minimal. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 625 am CDT Friday Jul 18 2008/ 


Aviation...12z taf. Some patchy fog and low clouds will bring 
conditions to MVFR for a time this morning. Once the sun comes up 
the conditions should improve. This afternoon there is a chance 
for some more thunderstorms to move through the kgri terminal area 
but this evening expect VFR conditions. 


Previous discussion... /issued 344 am CDT Friday Jul 18 2008/ 


Discussion...main issue for this forecast is dealing with rain 
chances and additional flooding potential today into tonight. Kuex 
WSR-88D shows light rainfall continuing this morning primarily 
across north central Kansas. This should wane this morning...however 
additional development remains possible...especially this 
afternoon. 


The mostly likely area for thunderstorms this afternoon appears to 
reside near the surface boundary which is expected to be located 
across the southern portion of the forecast area. Will carry likely 
probability of precipitation in that area again this afternoon...and taper to chance probability of precipitation in 
the northwest. The next question is how to handle the current 
Flash Flood Watch...and whether or not to issue additional 
headlines for this afternoon/evening. Since heavy rainfall is no 
longer expected this morning...will cancel the ongoing watch with 
the morning forecast package. This afternoon into this evening 
presents a bigger problem since the possibility of heavy rainfall 
will exist...especially in the southeast portion of the forecast 
area closer to the boundary. After discussion with surrounding 
offices...have opted to not issue an additional watch for this 
afternoon or evening at this point since the areas which have the 
higher probability of precipitation can probably handle a bit more rain...and one hour 
flash flood guidance values are generally around an inch in those 
spots. Will instead mention the possibility of locally heavy 
rainfall in the hazardous weather outlook and state that 
additional isolated flooding issues could arise. 


Saturday appears to be mainly dry during the day...but will 
continue to carry a small pop Saturday night due to a surface 
boundary located near the Kansas and Nebraska border. Despite the 
boundary in the area...the 00z NAM and GFS are basically dry...so 
will keep probability of precipitation in the slight chance category. Have also decided to 
add a slight chance pop to the northern half of the forecast area 
Sunday night with the 00z NAM suggesting a weak surface boundary 
may be in that area...but again model quantitative precipitation forecast does not suggest much 
across the forecast area. 


&& 


Gid watches/warnings/advisories... 
NE...none. 
Kansas...none. 
&& 


$$