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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 
230 am CDT sun Jul 6 2008 


Discussion... 
forecast challenge concerns precipitation chances and temperatures. Models 
showing some differences on surface features with mondays frontal passage 
otherwise in pretty good agreement. Will use blend for forecast. 


In the near term convection persists ahead of frontal boundary and 
will monitor for any early am mention over eastern forecast area. For remainder 
of day cold front will complete passage across forecast area about middle morning. 
Strongest cold advection today following frontal passage slides southeast affecting 
NE half of forecast area greatest. Band of low level relative humidity/MVFR ceilings associated 
with baroclinic zone moving into southern mb/Saskatchewan has potential to 
affect northern forecast area although both NAM/GFS dry layer during day. This 
could have consequences with temperatures this area. With solar 
expected over remainder of forecast area will still be a fairly warm day. 


Next short wave and associated surface boundary in progressive zonal 
middle level flow could affect western forecast area late Sunday night/Monday am 
but primarily Monday. Will maintain low probability of precipitation across far western forecast area 
as residual convection from evening complex could reach this area 
towards morning. Models pretty close in maintaining precipitation propagating 
across forecast area during day so will nudge probability of precipitation upward. Temperatures likely 
to hinge significantly on degree of cloud cover. Column remains 
relatively warm so any breaks will allow for decent recovery. Will 
however need to lower maximum temperatures slightly banking on more clouds than 
sun during day. 


Will continue trend of diminishing probability of precipitation from west to east Monday 
night as boundary doesnt exit forecast area to the east till early Tuesday. 


Cold advection continues behind frontal passage into Tuesday and will be quite 
a bit cooler although models differ on convective temperatures. At 
this point will not change temperatures drastically. 


Remainder of period looks relatively quiet with moderating 
temperatures after middle week. No big changes planned. 


&& 
Aviation... 
isolated thunderstorm activity should clear eastern forecast area by 12z. Otherwise will 
be looking for some potential of MVFR ceilings across northern parts of 
forecast area this morning into afternoon in stronger zone of cold 
advection. Remainder of forecast area will be VFR. 
&& 


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories... 
ND...none. 
Minnesota...none 


&& 


$$ 


Voelker