487 
fxus62 kmhx 210715 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
215 am EST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will build in from the north today...then slide 
offshore tonight. Low pressure will develop just offshore late 
Sunday and Sunday night...then lift NE on Monday. High pressure 
will rebuild over the area Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front 
will approach from the west on Thursday and move offshore 
Friday. 


&& 


Near term /through today/... 
as of 2 am Sat...low clouds have clearing inland and north. Models show 
lows clouds slowly sliding S and east and expect clouds currently 
along the beaches will diminish through the morning. NAM forecast 
sounding continue to show a nearly saturated layer near 5000 feet this 
afternoon so expect will see decent amount of strato-cu...will also 
have some high clouds today but expect enough peaks of sun to get 
highs in the 60 to 65 dgr range. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through Monday/... 
as of 2 am Sat...clouds will thicken tonight as begin to see low 
level moisture increase plus will have some middle/high clouds well 
ahead of approaching srt wave. Continue previous forecast of slight pop late 
tonight southern tier. Lows mainly upper 40s to lower 50s. Rain will be 
increasing from SW to NE Sunday as insent lift increases over the 
area as coastal front takes shape just offshore ahead of approaching 
srt wave. Continue likely probability of precipitation inland to chance NE CST later Sunday. Sun 
night looks wet as isent lift continues with increasing middle/upper 
support with srt wave passing by to the northwest. Have categorical probability of precipitation 
all areas Sun night. Rain will gradient diminish from SW to NE Monday 
however will still have good covering early and continue categorical NE 
CST to likely probability of precipitation elsewhere with probability of precipitation decreasing to chance late. 
Total quantitative precipitation forecast from this event looks to average out in 0.5 to 1 inch range and 
despite very wet ground many areas shld not cause significant 
problems. Highs both sun and Monday with clouds...precipitation and NE winds 
will be mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s. 


&& 


Long term /Monday night through Friday/... 
as of 2 am Sat...any lingering light rain/drizzle will end Monday 
night. With high pressure building in Tuesday and Wednesday expect dry 
conditions. Impressive srt wave/cold front will approach Thursday and 
move offshore Friday. Models differ with GFS showing limited moisture 
and bulk of precipitation offshore. Emcwf is wetter...espcly CST with 
moisture coming in off Atlantic. Currently have chance probability of precipitation Thursday and will 
not change until get more clarity from models. Cooler and dry Friday in 
wake of front/srt wave. 


&& 


Aviation /06z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
as of 8 PM Friday...ceilings gradually starting to lift with MVFR 
at isolated...ewn and oaj with VFR now at pgv. The trend will be for 
the stubborn low clouds to continue lifting through the nighttime 
hours as time sections show drier air slowly mixing to the 
surface. May see some fog patches toward morning. 


Previous discussion... 
northerly flow continues across rtes tonight. Extensive low clouds 
continue across eastern NC this evening bringing MVFR ceilings most 
locations to IFR ceilings across southern rtes. Ceilings slowly rise late this 
afternoon with drier air filtering into the region. Visible satellite 
showing clearing to the north and west and expect improving 
conditions across the coastal plain early this evening however eastern 
rtes will likely hang onto lower ceilings...mainly MVFR....through 
most of the evening and possibly after midnight before clearing. 


VFR Sat-sun with high pressure extending in...then conditions 
lowering Sun night-Monday with low pressure moving across. Conditions 
improving again Monday night-Tuesday with high pressure again. 


&& 


Marine... 
as of 8 PM Friday...updated coastal waters forecast earlier as scec on the sounds 
expired. Continue Small Craft Advisory on coastal waters as NE winds gust into the 
20s over the coastal waters with seas offshore up to 6 to 7 feet. 
No other major changes to current coastal forecast/grids. 


Previous discussion... 
northerly surge continuing to bring winds around 20 to 25 knots 
across most of the waters late this afternoon. Winds beginning to 
diminish to the north and expect winds to continue to gradually 
diminish from north to S late this evening and overnight. Seas up to 7 
feet to continue from Diamond Shoals northward and up to 6 feet across the 
southern coastal waters...especially outer waters. Seas will also 
gradually subside Sat and Sat evening and a period of sub Small Craft Advisory 
conditions expected late Sat night early sun before the next 
system approaches the coastal waters. 


Low confidence continues with next low pressure system affecting area 
late sun into Monday and did not make significant change to previous 
forecast...keeping low track offshore. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 1 am EST Sunday for amz152-154. 
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for amz156- 
158. 
Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EST this morning for amz150. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...rf 
near term...rf 
short term...rf 
long term...rf 
aviation...ctc/sk 
marine...ctc/sk