995 
fxus62 kgsp 061443 
afdgsp 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 
1043 am EDT sun Jul 6 2008 


Synopsis... 
a weak stationary front will remain just north and west of the 
forecast area before dissipating early in the work week. High 
pressure will strengthen off the Atlantic coast through the middle 
of next week. A cold front will approach the Carolinas from the 
northwest by late in the week. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
expect showers/thunderstorms to redevelop this afternoon and become more numerous 
through the evening hours as better upper forcing moves across area. 
Chance probability of precipitation will linger overnight. Threat of severe storms slightly 
higher than yesterday...especially over West County warning area where models show drier air 
working in at the middle levels. Will still need some pretty big cores 
of 50-55dbz up around 28-30kft...with wind damage the main concern. 
Tweaked grids to reflect latest trends/guidance but no major 
adjustments needed with this update. Lows tonight generally in the 
60s with some 50s in the mountains 


&& 


Short term /Monday through Tuesday night/... 
as of 240 am Sunday...the operational models appear to be converging 
toward a solution of progressing the trough east of the area by 
Monday afternoon...with drying occurring through a deep layer. 
Despite this...the NAM blows up quite a bit of convection in the Lee 
Monday afternoon within an axis of strong convergence. It/S interesting 
that the GFS has this area of convergence as well...but does not 
initiate any convection due to dry air/weak instability. We have 
opted to include low chance probability of precipitation in areas from the Blue Ridge east 
Monday afternoon/evening. 


Tuesday appears to be a Carbon copy of Monday from the models 
perspective...with the NAM once again blowing up convection in the 
Lee...while the GFS is drier. Slight to low chance probability of precipitation will be 
featured across the area once again Tuesday afternoon/evening. 
Temperatures will generally be within a category of climatology 
through the period. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/... 
as of 250 am Sunday...a rather typical Summer pattern is expected 
through much of the extended...as the sub-tropical ridge/Bermuda 
high noses into the southeast by mid-week. This will result in 
mainly diural/widely scattered convection...maximum temperatures in the 90s and 
lows from the middle 60s to around 70. Coverage of convection may increase 
by late week...as a cold front approaches from the Ohio Valley. 


&& 


Aviation /15z Sunday through Thursday/... 
after a lull...deep convection will increase again this afternoon. Once 
started...the slow approach of additional upper forcing should keep 
it going through the end of the taf period. So...thunderstorms in the vicinity and cumulonimbus clouds 
mentioned this aftn-eve...continuing late at all sites with the 
exception kavl. Expect more MVFR fog/stratus early Monday. 


Outlook...little overall change through day five. As surface ridge remains 
offshore bringing moisture up over region expect mainly diurnal 
convection with associated hazards. 


&& 


Gsp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Georgia...none. 
NC...none. 
SC...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...jdl 
near term...rb 
short term...jdl 
long term...jdl 
aviation...PM/rb