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fxus62 krah 160716 
afdrah 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Raleigh NC 
310 am EDT Thursday Oct 16 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure over the southeast states will continue to bring very 
warm temperatures to the area today. A strong cold front will move 
south through the area tonight into Friday morning...causing a large 
drop in temperatures and bringing a good chance of rain early in the 
weekend. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
as of 200 am Thursday... 


Today... weak high pressure will remain over the southeast states. 
An upper level ridge off the southeast east Atlantic coast will aid 
in high level cloudiness overspreading the region from the west as 
southwest to west flow aloft pushes it over the ridge. It will be 
well into the day before the middle and lower levels moisture up. 
Thicknesses continue to give highs in the middle 80s. With westerly 
flow increasing ahead of a boundary moving through the area today 
..these readings should not be much of a stretch. 


Tonight... a surface boundary with associated moisture and weak 
upper level support will move into western North Carolina. As high 
pressure across the Great Lakes builds east to New England the front 
will be pushed south through central North Carolina. The chance for 
rain (albeit low) will increase across the northwest and north as 
precipitable water values rise to 1.25 to 1.5 inches. Cloud cover tonight will aid 
in holding lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. 


&& 


Short term /Friday through Saturday/... 
as of 310 am Thursday... 


Models in generally good agreement that precipitation will move 
into the area from the north early in the day Friday... then 
overspread the region through Friday night... then taper off north 
to south through Saturday morning as surface boundary drifts ever so 
slowly south. Most of the precipitation should clear the area by 
late Saturday afternoon as high pressure builds down the Atlantic 
Seaboard. Highs Friday will be in the 60s north to 70s south. Lows 
Friday night will be in the 40s to lower 50s. Much cooler Saturday 
with highs in the 60s. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... 
as of 330 PM Wednesday... 


For Saturday night through tuesday: ridging will build in from the 
north with the chilly surface high expected to move overhead Monday 
morning. Skies should become mostly clear Saturday night... with 
some lingering clouds over the southeast zones early. Lows will dip into 
the 40s. Highs Sunday with light winds and sunny skies should be in 
the 65-70 range. Lows Sunday night 38-45. 


The surface high should gradually modify Monday under middle level 
height rises... and low level thicknesses rebound close to normal 
Monday. Will continue to advertise highs returning to the 70s 
Monday... with plenty of sunshine. 


It appears another surface cold front will arrive Tuesday... pushed 
by another strong surface high that will build from the Great Lakes 
toward our region Tue-Thu. Expect dry and mild Tuesday... then much 
cooler again middle week. 


&& 


Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/... 
as of 200 am... 


Some risk for a shower after dark tonight in the northwest 
Piedmont with MVFR ceilings and visibilities...otherwise VFR 
conditions forecast across central North Carolina. Ceilings 
falling to seven to eight thousand feet a couple of hours after 
dark in the northwest...with conditions spreading east as midnight 
approaches. 


A cold front will cross central North Carolina tonight into Friday. 
MVFR ceilings and visibilities at times tonight...mainly after 
midnight. MVFR to IFR ceilings Friday and Friday night with 
showers producing mostly MVFR visibilities. VFR conditions 
Saturday night into Monday with the exception of some Monday 
morning fog. 


&& 


Rah watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...rhj 
near term...rhj 
short term...rhj