750 
fxus62 kmhx 181450 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
1050 am EDT Friday Jul 18 2008 


Synopsis... 
low pressure off the Georgia coast will drift north or northeast 
and be located near the North Carolina coast later Sunday. The low 
will then lift NE and away from the region Monday and Monday night. 
High pressure will continue offshore next week as a cold front very slowly 
approaches from the west Tuesday into Thursday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
have raised afternoon maxt a few degrees based on current temperature 
trends. Also made minor adjustments to sky and pop grids based on 
trends in satl/radar. Band of showers/isolated tstrms well north of 
main circulation off Georgia coast rotating into the ilm area this late 
morning. Much of this activity will stay south of forecast area this afternoon 
but have kept a good chance for Onslow/Duplin counties with lessening 
chances as you go north. 


Low located off the Georgia CST is going to move slowly and this shld 
keep deepest moisture and better rain chance S of region. Will be 
close enough to go with chance probability of precipitation southern tier later today with small 
to no probability of precipitation north. With decent amount of sun will have highs in the 
lower 90s inland and north to middle/upper 80s obx and S CST. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday night/... 
given weak steering the low to the S will move slowly with models 
showing it staying close the the CST as it moves mainly north-northeast. 
Followed close to the GFS with increasing chances of rain showers and a few 
thunderstorms and rain Sat into sun when the low moves close to NC. Kept likely 
probability of precipitation confined to southern and imd coastal sites where moisture/convergence 
expected to be better. With increasing moisture and slow motion of 
low some areas could see some training of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain with locally 
very heavy rainfall poss. Will have to monitor low closely for 
increasing tropical development espcly if it stays over warm water 
and doesnt move over land. Highs will continue around 90 inland and north 
Sat and sun with less rain potential with mainly middle 80s CST. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Thursday/... 
as low moves to the NE Monday will have decreasing probability of precipitation with schc by 
afternoon all areas. With high offshore and front well to the west kept 
only slight probability of precipitation in for Tuesday and Wednesday...as front approaches Thursday 
increased probability of precipitation to chance all areas. No changes to previous temperatures. 


&& 


Aviation /15z Friday through Tuesday/... 
low level moisture increasing as winds veer more easterly today. 
Stratus layer has lifted and scattered scatter out in increased 
boundary layer. Could see some convection at mainly the coastal 
terminals today and continue to handle that with vcts/cb. 


Probability for widespread MVFR (ocnl ifr) conds will be increasing 
this weekend as low pressure slowly moves up along the coast and draws 
in deep moisture/more widespread precipitation. 


&& 


Marine... 
near term...no significant changes to morning update. Winds 
currently east around 10 knots and seas 2 to 4 feet. Winds will be veering 
more the southeast and increase a bit later in the day...as well as 
building seas as low pressure moves northward. 


Rest of marine forecast is tricky as it hinges heavily on eventual track 
and intensity of low pressure now off Georgia coast...which has the potential 
to develop into a tropical depression. NAM/European model (ecmwf) are now in better 
agreement with slower solution and keeping the system offshore. 
Southeast/S winds will be increasing along the Carolina coast Saturday. 
Likely to see SC conditions develop Saturday into Sunday. Have put 
SC seas in forecast...but for now kept winds under 20 knots. 


Model trends will need to be closely monitored given the potential 
marine impacts of a deepening coastal system this weekend. 


High pressure will build in behind as low exits Tuesday...giving way 
to SW winds generally 10 to 15 knots and seas 3 to 4 feet. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...rf 
near term...btc/rf 
short term...rf 
long term...rf 
aviation...rsb/cqd 
marine...rsb/cqd