653 
fxus62 kmhx 211002 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
500 am EST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will build in from the north today...then slide 
offshore tonight. Low pressure will develop just offshore late 
Sunday and Sunday night...then lift NE on Monday. High pressure 
will rebuild over the area Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front 
will approach from the west on Thursday and move offshore 
Friday. 


&& 


Near term /through today/... 
as of 2 am Sat...low clouds have clearing inland and north. Models show 
lows clouds slowly sliding S and east and expect clouds currently 
along the beaches will diminish through the morning. NAM forecast 
sounding continue to show a nearly saturated layer near 5000 feet this 
afternoon so expect will see decent amount of strato-cu...will also 
have some high clouds today but expect enough peaks of sun to get 
highs in the 60 to 65 dgr range. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through Monday/... 
as of 2 am Sat...clouds will thicken tonight as begin to see low 
level moisture increase plus will have some middle/high clouds well 
ahead of approaching srt wave. Continue previous forecast of slight pop late 
tonight southern tier. Lows mainly upper 40s to lower 50s. Rain will be 
increasing from SW to NE Sunday as insent lift increases over the 
area as coastal front takes shape just offshore ahead of approaching 
srt wave. Continue likely probability of precipitation inland to chance NE CST later Sunday. Sun 
night looks wet as isent lift continues with increasing middle/upper 
support with srt wave passing by to the northwest. Have categorical probability of precipitation 
all areas Sun night. Rain will gradient diminish from SW to NE Monday 
however will still have good covering early and continue categorical NE 
CST to likely probability of precipitation elsewhere with probability of precipitation decreasing to chance late. 
Total quantitative precipitation forecast from this event looks to average out in 0.5 to 1 inch range and 
despite very wet ground many areas shld not cause significant 
problems. Highs both sun and Monday with clouds...precipitation and NE winds 
will be mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s. 


&& 


Long term /Monday night through Friday/... 
as of 2 am Sat...any lingering light rain/drizzle will end Monday 
night. With high pressure building in Tuesday and Wednesday expect dry 
conditions. Impressive srt wave/cold front will approach Thursday and 
move offshore Friday. Models differ with GFS showing limited moisture 
and bulk of precipitation offshore. Emcwf is wetter...espcly CST with 
moisture coming in off Atlantic. Currently have chance probability of precipitation Thursday and will 
not change until get more clarity from models. Cooler and dry Friday in 
wake of front/srt wave. 


&& 


Aviation /09z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
ceilings have improved to VFR all taf sites this morning but some local 
MVFR visibilities likely at kpgv and kiso until 13z. VFR expected to 
prevail today into tonight with high pressure over area...though high 
clouds increasing today and middle clouds tonight. 


Low pressure moving up from SW will produce deteriorating conditions 
late sun...with widespread IFR Sun night and Monday. Lower ceilings likely to 
persist into Tuesday due to wedge conditions in wake of departed low 
pressure. 


&& 


Marine... 
weak low pressure off SC coast resuting in tighter pressure gradient early this 
morning...and continued stronger winds over central and southern waters. 
Borderline Small Craft Advisory winds over Pamlico sounds but RUC and NAM idicate 
period of stronger winds persisting this morning so posted Small Craft Advisory there 
until noon. Stonger winds will continue over southern half of waters into 
this evening...and Small Craft Advisory seas will persisting into sun. 


Still some model differences on surface low moving up from SW Sun 
night-Monday and leaned to slightly slower NAM for continuity. 06z GFS 
has come in line with this solution as well. Expect winds and seas 
to increase late sun into Sun night...then may have winds below 20 
knots Monday with low moving near coast. Conditiosn slowly improving 
Tue-Wed. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for amz135. 
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for amz152-154-156- 
158. 
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for amz150. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...rf 
near term...rf 
short term...rf 
long term...rf 
aviation...jbm 
marine...jbm