445 
fxus62 kmhx 211543 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
1043 am EST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will build in from the north today...then slide 
offshore tonight. Low pressure will develop just offshore late 
Sunday and Sunday night...then lift NE on Monday. High pressure 
will rebuild over the area Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front 
will approach from the west on Thursday and move offshore 
Friday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
despite the cool NE flow regime...partial sunshine and weak 
thickness ridging aloft will allow temperatures to rise anthr 5-10 degrees 
this afternoon. NAM forecast sounding continue to show a nearly saturated layer 
near 5000 feet this afternoon so expect will see decent amount of strato- 
cumulus...will also have some high clouds today but expect enough peaks 
of sun to get highs in the 60 to 65 dgr range. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday/... 
as of 2 am Sat...clouds will thicken tonight as begin to see low 
level moisture increase plus will have some middle/high clouds well 
ahead of approaching srt wave. Continue previous forecast of slight pop late 
tonight southern tier. Lows mainly upper 40s to lower 50s. Rain will be 
increasing from SW to NE Sunday as insent lift increases over the 
area as coastal front takes shape just offshore ahead of approaching 
srt wave. Continue likely probability of precipitation inland to chance NE CST later Sunday. Sun 
night looks wet as isent lift continues with increasing middle/upper 
support with srt wave passing by to the northwest. Have categorical probability of precipitation 
all areas Sun night. Rain will gradient diminish from SW to NE Monday 
however will still have good covering early and continue categorical NE 
CST to likely probability of precipitation elsewhere with probability of precipitation decreasing to chance late. 
Total quantitative precipitation forecast from this event looks to average out in 0.5 to 1 inch range and 
despite very wet ground many areas shld not cause significant 
problems. Highs both sun and Monday with clouds...precipitation and NE winds 
will be mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s. 


&& 


Long term /Monday night through Friday/... 
as of 2 am Sat...any lingering light rain/drizzle will end Monday 
night. With high pressure building in Tuesday and Wednesday expect dry 
conditions. Impressive srt wave/cold front will approach Thursday and 
move offshore Friday. Models differ with GFS showing limited moisture 
and bulk of precipitation offshore. Emcwf is wetter...espcly CST with 
moisture coming in off Atlantic. Currently have chance probability of precipitation Thursday and will 
not change until get more clarity from models. Cooler and dry Friday in 
wake of front/srt wave. 


&& 


Aviation /16z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
as of 915 am...a mix of layered clouds expected for the remainder of 
the day with VFR ceilings. Tonight...higher clouds will sink into a 
middle deck which along with light winds will help inhibit fog despite 
higher dewpoints. 


Low pressure moving up from SW will produce deteriorating conditions 
late sun...with widespread IFR Sun night and Monday. Lower ceilings likely to 
persist into Tuesday due to wedge conditions in wake of departed low 
pressure. 


&& 


Marine... 
as of 915 am...we will continue with marginal 
Small Craft Advisory conditions along the coastal waters and along 
the Pamlico Sound with winds 20ktg25 and seas 5 to 8 feet. A weak 
area of low pressure off SC coast is resuting in tighter pressure gradient early 
this morning...and continued stronger winds over central and southern 
waters. Borderline Small Craft Advisory winds over Pamlico sounds but RUC and NAM 
idicate period of stronger winds persisting this morning so posted 
Small Craft Advisory there until noon. Stonger winds will continue over southern half of 
waters into this evening...and Small Craft Advisory seas will persisting into sun. 


Still some model differences on surface low moving up from SW Sun 
night-Monday and leaned to slightly slower NAM for continuity. 06z GFS 
has come in line with this solution as well. Expect winds and seas 
to increase late sun into Sun night...then may have winds below 20 
knots Monday with low moving near coast. Conditiosn slowly improving 
Tue-Wed. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for amz135. 
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for amz152-154-156- 
158. 
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for amz150. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...rf 
near term...btc/rf 
short term...rf 
long term...rf 
aviation...jbm/sj 
marine...jbm/sj