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fxus62 kmhx 152352 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
752 PM EDT Wednesday Oct 15 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will slowly move S of the region through Thursday. A 
cold front will approach from the west Thursday night and move offshore 
Friday. Low pressure will develop offshore of the coast Sat and move NE 
away from the area Sat night and sun. High pressure will build in from 
the northwest sun through Tuesday. 


&& 


Near term /through Thursday/... 
little change to current forecast. Will remove cloudiness from the 
northeastern counties where satellite shows skies have cleared. 
Temperatures should be able to drop into the middle and upper 50s per 
current forecast. Some patches of fog toward morning but not as 
widespread as last night given warmer/drier boundary layer 
conditions. 




&& 


Short term /Thursday night/... 
upper ridge/surface high pressure suppressed south as a shearing short 
wave moves through the Great Lakes region and into the NE states. 
Increasing zonal/downsloping flow will help high temperatures attain MOS 
guidance levels which has been a few degrees too warm the past few 
days. Record highs at ewn (88f) and hse (83f) main be attained if 
clouds remain scattered/thin as suggested by model time sections. 


Increasing clouds and mixed boundary layer ahead incoming surface front 
and sheared short wave moving off the eastern Seaboard will keep 
lows temperatures in the l-m60s. Models suggest any associated precipitation holds off 
until after sunrise Friday in the dry mean west flow. 


May be a large high temperature spread across the area on Friday as cold 
front drops south through the area. Precipitation chances look to be limited on 
Friday given the low amplitude short wave and initial dry boundary layer 
conds so will keep precipitation chances in the slight chance to chance categories. 


&& 


Long term /Friday through Wednesday/... 
better precipitation chances may be tied to the development of a strong 
baroclinic zone across eastern NC Friday night. 12z European model (ecmwf)/NAM suggesting 1-2 
inches of rain may fall with the highest amounts near the coast 
while GFS yields less than half inch. Although rain may be briefly 
heavy...steadier precipitation should be ending quickly as low pressure spins up 
offshore and dry slot moves to coast early say morning. Will taper 
off probability of precipitation from west to east on Sat but cloudy/cool conds likely 
prevail for much of the day given the strong onshore flow. 


Remainder long term forecast period mainly influenced by strong upper 
ridging and surface high pressure. Temperatures knocked back below norml due to 
good cold air advection Sat night through Sunday night before a brief return to 
norml levels early next week. Passage of another cold front on 
Tuesday brings the potential for an even colder airmass/stronger high 
opree to build over the area during midweek. 


&& 


Aviation /00z Thursday through Monday/... 
given clear skies and relatively high dewpoints...should see our normal 
late night fog over taf sites. The fog should not be quite as 
widespread as last night and will forecast MVFR visibilities...dissipating 
shortly after sunrise Thursday. 


Flow to increase from the southwest as front appches Thursday night. 
Clouds increasing and lowering Thursday night with frontal passage expected Friday 
morning. MVFR ceilings Friday into Sat with front. Wind speeds expected to 
pick up to around 15 kts behind the front over taf sites. Clearing 
skies Sat night but possible IFR in fog. High pressure to build back 
over area sun and Monday. 


&& 


Marine... 
made only minor changes to current marine forecast. Winds generally 10 
knots or less from SW/west with seas in the 2 to 4 foot range. Still 
looking for frontal boundary to cross the waters early Friday with 
first batch of increased seas Friday afternoon and evening. As surface 
low pressure forms along the Gulf Stream and starts to strength and 
race off to the northeast on Saturday...wind wave and swell energy 
increases with gusty north/north-northeast winds through Saturday into Sunday. 
With low bombing well east of New England and with 1028+ mb high 
settling along the central Carolinas...expect Small Craft Advisory conditions to 
persist into early next week. 


Weakening gradient Monday. However strong hi pressure will tighten gradient again on 
Tuesday with northerly wind possibly pickg up to Small Craft Advisory speeds again Tuesday night. Brisk 
north/NE spds to continue over the waters into Thursday. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...btc 
near term...ctc 
short term...btc 
long term...btc 
aviation...ctc/cgg 
marine...ctc/cgg