850 
fxus62 kmhx 211838 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
238 PM EDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Synopsis... 
a ridge of high pressure over the Middle Atlantic States will move to 
the offshore waters of New England tonight where it will remain 
through the weekend. A trough of low pressure will move onshore into 
the area on Sunday. A cold front will approach from the northwest 
Tuesday and Wednesday. It will combine with the remnants of tropical 
system Fay which will be moving northeast through the Gulf states... 
bringing an increased chance of rain to the Carolinas. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
only a few showers across the far southwest corner of the forecast 
area this afternoon with nothing upstream. Activity will be gone by 
late afternoon so will not include any rain chances for the evening. 
Kept only a slight chance over the southern waters overnight. 


&& 


Short term /Friday through Friday night/... 
Tropical Storm Fay will move west northwest over the weekend. High 
pressure will remain centered over the offshore New England waters 
with its axis extending into the southern Appalachians. Underneath 
this a weak trough of low pressure will move onshore from the Atlantic 
on Sunday. For now kept probability of precipitation at only 20 percent. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Thursday/... 
pattern starts to look increasingly wet as the week progresses. A 
cold front will approach from the northwest by Tuesday and 
Wednesday. By that time the remnants of Fay will be over the Gulf 
states moving northeast. The two features will combine and bring a 
good chance of rain to the southeast. Did not want to go too high on 
the probability of precipitation since it is at the end of the extended period. Kept close 
to HPC guidance and went a with 30-40 percent chance. 


&& 


Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/... 
generally scattered cumulus and broken cirrus due to large shield 
from T.S. Fay. And VFR should prevail through about 06z to 08z. 
MOS guidance indicates minimal chance of fog...but sref visibility 
probability graphics does indicate some chance of lower visibility fog over 
the coastal plains affect the isolated and pgv taf sites. Given trend 
of recent nights and despite decent amount of low-level 
mixing...given sustained onshore flow...will have MVFR visibility fog at all 
of the taf sites after about 08z. 


Onshore flow will continue through Sat...leading to MVFR ceilings 
especially during the early morning hours. Otherwise...VFR should 
dominate except brief reductions in showres/tstms. 


&& 


Marine... 
not much change in thinking on the marine forecast. Long fetch 
east/east-northeast flow between large blocking high over the northern middle Atlantic 
and T.S. Fay moving slowly over North Florida...will keep gusty 
east/east-northeast winds and Small Craft Advisory seas going over the waters south of Hatteras 
into the early weekend. Conditions from Hatteras north to Oregon 
Inlet will be marginal for Small Craft Advisory seas by early Saturday. While its 
too early to issue Small Craft Advisory for that particular zone...will indicate 
Small Craft Advisory seas in text of coastal waters forecast Saturday/Saturday night. 


Increased winds and rough seas aleady showing up at the southern buoys 
with 41036 showing 8 feet/6 seconds with east-northeast gusting to 26 
knots...while the 41035 off Onslow County reporting 5 feet/6 second 
with wind gusts to 24 knots. Will forecast 20 to 25 knots over the 
southernmost leg tonight. 


Seas subside below Small Craft Advisory levels by early Sunday. Earlier runs of the 
wavewatch indicated another batch of swell energy early next week 
as a result of tropical system in the middle Atlantic and 
persistent east-southeast swell...but wavewatch has backed off on the 12z 
run and have followed suit. 


Will be upgraded to high threat of rip currents given gusty winds 
and increased swell component. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for amz154-156- 
158. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...hsa 
near term...hsa 
short term...hsa 
long term...hsa 
aviation...ctc 
marine...ctc