982 
fxus62 kmhx 240744 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
344 am EDT Thursday Jul 24 2008 


Synopsis... 
a weak cold front will move slowly east across North Carolina 
today then move off the coast tonight and dissipate. Numerous 
showers and thunderstorms this morning east of Highway 17 will 
become scattered this afternoon and end this evening. Weak high 
pressure will be over the area Friday limiting any precipitation 
to an isolated sea breeze thunderstorm. Atlantic high pressure 
will circulate a southerly flow of moist and increasingly unstable 
air into eastern North Carolina Saturday. Amplification of the 
persistent eastern upper trough will allow another cold front to 
sag southeast into eastern North Carolina Sunday and Monday. 
Delaware amplification of the upper trough Tuesday and Wednesday will 
signal the return of hot temperatures and afternoon/evening 
thunderstorms. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
the models are in fairly good agreement that scattered-numerous 
showers and thunderstorms east of Highway 17 this morning should 
be off the coast around noon time. Thereafter the boundary will 
stall across eastern NC. Although drier will filter into western 
areas this afternoon...the NAM suggests that strong thunderstorms 
will redevelop along the boundary as it intersects the sea breeze. 
The GFS is less emphatic but does still indicate a threat for 
convection through early evening. Based on these trends and 
inherent uncertainty on how much redevelopment will occur...will 
indicate scattered thunderstorms areawide. Best threat would 
appear to be from Highway 17 to the Pamlico Sound. Highs today 
will be held down by more persistent clouds and wet ground and will 
forecast highs in the middle to upper 80s. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday/... 
will indicate a slight chance pop east of Highway 17 this 
evening...then forecast dry conditions overnight and most of 
Friday. Although the models are forecasting Friday to be 
dry...similar situations this Summer have seen isolated sea breeze 
convection so introduced a slight chance pop vicinity of 
climatological position of afternoon sea breeze. Highs will warm 
back up into the upper 80s/lower 90s. 


Friday and Saturday forecast low confidence. The NAM forms a weak 
low along the remnant frontal boundary off the coast and drifts 
the low off the coast through Sunday bringing a chance for showers 
to Hatteras Island. The GFS indicates return flow off the ocean 
and forecasts a chance of showers with heaviest amounts Hatteras 
Island Saturday. Will include a slight chance pop late Friday 
night and then continue broad brushed 30 probability of precipitation Saturday until 
situation becomes clearer. Highs on Saturday with southerly flow 
will be in the lower 90s inland. Lows tonight and Friday night 
will be mainly in the upper 60s/lower 70s with isolated middle 60s 
inland and middle 70s Outer Banks and beaches. 




&& 


Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... 
with the pattern remaining blocked...the eastern US trough will 
remain in place and is forecasted to amplify Sunday and Monday 
with another cold front moving into the area increasing the threat 
foe showers and thunderstorms. The flow will Delaware amplify Tuesday and 
Wednesday with mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Highs 
will be well into the 90s through the period with prolonged humid 
conditions expected. 




&& 


Aviation /07z Thursday through Monday/... 
heavy showers moved over all terminals overnight...producing 
predominant MVFR conditions with periods of IFR. The rain will 
continue over oaj/ewn through early morning...but only scattered to over 
pgv/iso. Scattered convection will be possible throughout the 
day...mainly near oaj/ewn where seabreeze interaction could play a 
big part. Probability of precipitation will clear out overnight...and light 
S winds...saturated ground...and clearing skies will set up a 
classic fog event. 


Through Friday and Sat look for light winds and scattered 
convection...winds becoming S/SW sun into Monday. 


&& 


Marine... 
Small Craft Advisory conditions continuing across all coastal waters this morning 
with areas of convection. The rain will focus along the coast with 
a high chance through noon...then gradually dropping down to 
isolated late. Winds will drop off quickly this morning...which 
will allow choppy seas to subside below Small Craft Advisory before noon today. 
Light winds will prevail through Sat as the front washes out and 
the upper level trough becomes less amplified. The trough will 
strengthen again on sun...which will turn winds out of the SW. A 
front experimental to cross the waters off Virginia and north will increase boundary 
layer winds sun nt into Monday morning over the area. This will pick 
winds up to around 20kt. After look for persistent trough to our west 
keeping SW flow predominant. Speeds will be around 15 knots...with 
seas 2 to 4 feet for next week. 


Rip currents...southeast swell will continue on Thursday but S-SW winds will be 
diminishing...leading to moderate threat all beaches. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EDT early this morning for 
amz130-135. 
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for amz152- 
154. 
Small Craft Advisory until 11 am EDT this morning for amz150- 
156-158. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...jme 
near term...jme 
short term...jme 
long term...jme 
aviation...sj 
marine...sj