130 
fxus61 kakq 210856 
afdakq 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
356 am EST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Synopsis... 
high pressure builds into the region today and tonight...then 
becomes centered to our north on Sunday. Low pressure develops to 
our south tonight...then tracks northeast off the coastal Carolinas 
late Sunday into Monday. The low moves farther offshore Monday 
night into Tuesday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
look for patchy fog this morning over the inland sections of the 
region this morning. Some visibilities will fall to under 2 miles in some 
locations. 


Dome of high pressure will continue to dominate the region today as 
next system to effect the region moves along the western sections of the 
Gulf Coast. East/NE winds over the area will lead to temperatures in the upper 
50s to low 60s. High clouds will continue to move over the region 
today as SW flow aloft in advance of next system. Will generally 
call for p/c-p/S skies today with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s 
for most. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday/... 
increasing high clouds tonight as system pushes into the 
southeastern US. It will take some time to saturate middle/low levels of 
the airmass (s-n) over the region. Precipitation will start of fairly light at 
first as overrunning develops with SW flow aloft well ahead of main 
system on sun. Look for highs in the middle/upper 50s. 


Precipitation chances increase Sun night and into Monday as system moves to the 
NE off the Carolina coast. Best shot of precipitation accums over a quarter 
of an inch will be over the southern third of the County Warning Area with highest 
amounts by Monday afternoon over the far southeast. Following close to/but not as 
high as the European model (ecmwf) solution with regard to precipitation amounts as system moves 
further up the East Coast. Would not be surprised to see clouds and 
areas of -ra/dz continue into Tuesday am before enough dry air filters 
out the bl later in the day. Overall for this system...currently 
looking at near a half of an inch of precipitation over the northwest and around 
an inch over the far southeast. This will occur enough over time to keep 
any flash flooding issues to a minimum with the recent rainfall 
we have seen as of late. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday night through Friday/... 
for Tuesday night/Wed...ridging develops either along the East Coast 
(ecmwf) or well off the coast (gfs). Gnly keeping skies partly 
cloudy for this period with near to slightly above average 
temperatures...highs into lower 60s and lows mainly in the 40s. As the 
ridge breaks down on Thanksgiving day...GFS/ECMWF bring next 
system into the area from the south (although again west/ major 
differences in track). Bring increasing clouds into the 
forecast...along with at least a slight chance for showers. Front looks to 
push through by Friday...drier and cooler weather for Friday. 


&& 


Aviation /09z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
VFR cndtns expeceted through forecast prd xcpt for some MVFR cndtns through 12z 
in patchy fog. Went ahead with a bkn250 forecast vice sky clear as Sat loop 
alrdy indctg plnty of cirrus apprchg from SW. 


Low apprchs from S by late sun with next chance for lower ceilings and chance 
for rain into Monday. The weather improves again by Tuesday. 


&& 


Marine... 
seas slowly subsiding across NC coastal waters...so will end Small Craft Advisory with 
am package. Cndtns remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through Sun morning as high prs 
dominates. 


Low prs along the southern states moves slowly NE late sun into Erly next 
week. NE prs gradient prognosticated to increases aftr 18z sun from the mouth of 
the ches Bay on S. Meanwhile...sustained NE fetch slowly builds seas 
to around 5 feet across the coastal waters Sun afternoon and beyond. Although 
there is still some disagreement in the models on the eventual track 
of this systm...confidence high enough at this time to hoist (marginal) Small Craft Advisory 
headlines starting Sun afternoon and continuing Sun night across all coastal 
waters...Currituck sand and the mouth of the ches Bay. Will end Small Craft Advisory 
headlines late Sun night (at the end of the 4th prd)...although latest 
wavewatch has seas at or above 5 feet through Tuesday. 


&& 


Tides/coastal flooding... 
highest tides forecasted Monday am with second highest tide Tuesday am. Current forecast 
has tides at 1 feet or less above normal drng this time frame...but 
history has shown that these numbers normal increases the closer we get to 
the event. Would not be surprised to see tidal departures apprch the 
minor flooding thresholds Erly next week if current track hold true. 
Stay tuned. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 6 am EST Monday for 
anz632-633-650-652-654-656-658. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...ccw 
near term...ccw 
short term...ccw 
long term...lkb 
aviation...mpr 
marine...mpr 
tides/coastal flooding...mpr