256 
fxus62 kgsp 060725 
afdgsp 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 
325 am EDT sun Jul 6 2008 


Synopsis... 
a weak stationary front will remain just north and west of the 
forecast area before dissipating early in the work week. High 
pressure will strengthen off the Atlantic coast through the middle 
of next week. A cold front will approach the Carolinas from the 
northwest by late in the week. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
all the ingredients remain in place for more showers and 
thunderstorms across the forecast area again today and tonight...so 
there is no reason to think the situation will play out a whole lot 
different than it did on Saturday. The presence of a weak surface 
boundary just on the east side of the mountains should provide some 
initial focus for convection through sunrise across the area to the 
south and east of I-85. After a lull of sorts through the middle to 
late morning hours...suspect that showers and thunderstorms will 
redevelop and gradually become more numerous through the evening 
hours. The best upper forcing actually moves across the region after 
00z so it is reasonable to keep a decent precipitation chance over the 
eastern half of the forecast area this evening. There doesn't appear 
to be any mechanism to shut off the convection late tonight east of 
the mountains...so a chance pop will linger. As for the threat of severe 
weather...it might be a bit higher than yesterday over the west 
where there is the possibility of some drier air working in at middle 
levels. Wind damage is the main concern. Temperatures were nudged toward 
the mav guidance. 


&& 


Short term /Monday through Tuesday night/... 
as of 240 am Sunday...the operational models appear to be converging 
toward a solution of progressing the trough east of the area by 
Monday afternoon...with drying occurring through a deep layer. 
Despite this...the NAM blows up quite a bit of convection in the Lee 
Monday afternoon within an axis of strong convergence. It/S interesting 
that the GFS has this area of convergence as well...but does not 
initiate any convection due to dry air/weak instability. We have 
opted to include low chance probability of precipitation in areas from the Blue Ridge east 
Monday afternoon/evening. 


Tuesday appears to be a Carbon copy of Monday from the models 
perspective...with the NAM once again blowing up convection in the 
Lee...while the GFS is drier. Slight to low chance probability of precipitation will be 
featured across the area once again Tuesday afternoon/evening. 
Temperatures will generally be within a category of climatology 
through the period. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/... 
as of 250 am Sunday...a rather typical Summer pattern is expected 
through much of the extended...as the sub-tropical ridge/Bermuda 
high noses into the southeast by mid-week. This will result in 
mainly diurnal/widely scattered convection...maximum temperatures in the 90s and 
lows from the middle 60s to around 70. Coverage of convection may increase 
by late week...as a cold front approaches from the Ohio Valley. 


&& 


Aviation /08z Sunday through Thursday/... 
all the ingredients remain in place for scattered to numerous 
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight across the 
region. The Piedmont looks like it will have the best chance for 
additional rain as that area should be on the favorable side of a 
weak boundary that cuts east to west across the forecast area. For 
the very near term...conditions should be MVFR in vicinity of showers and 
thunderstorms that will persist through about sunrise. All taf sites 
stand a good chance of seeing a period of at least MVFR fog around 
daybreak owing to recent rainfall. A lull in convective activity is 
expected during the middle morning to early afternoon...after which 
deep convection should bubble up again. Once it gets started...the 
slow approach of the upper forcing should keep it going through the 
end of the taf period. So...a thunderstorms in the vicinity is started in the early 
afternoon...which persists until at least 06z at all sites with the 
exception of kavl. As before...expect amendments when a clearer 
picture of the timing of restrictions around thunderstorms can be 
determined. Expect more MVFR fog/stratus early Monday morning once 
the convection dies down. 


Outlook...little overall change through day five. As surface ridge remains 
offshore bringing moisture up over region expect mainly diurnal 
convection with associated hazards. 


&& 


Gsp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Georgia...none. 
NC...none. 
SC...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...jdl 
near term...PM 
short term...jdl 
long term...jdl 
aviation...PM