599 
fxus61 kmhx 052036 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
435 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Synopsis... 
a stationary front will remain well to the north and west this 
through Sunday...then dissipate early next week. An upper levle 
trough of low pressure will remain over the southeast U.S. Through 
early next week with several disturbances moving through the flow. 
This trough will lift out Tuesday with the flow becoming more 
zonal. High pressure off the southeast coast will provide moisture 
for showers and thunderstorms through the period. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/... 
sea breeze and outflow from earlier convection have stabilized most 
of County Warning Area late this afternoon. Expect this to be short-lived however with 
widespread upstream activity spreading NE during early evening. Went 
with likely probability of precipitation for inland sections...mainly west of Highway 17...during 
evening with chance probability of precipitation for coast. Scattered activity expected to continue 
overnight given moist and unstable conditions and went with 50 pop 
all zones. A few wet microbursts possible during late afternoon and early 
evening per morning afd. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday night/... 
models in good agreement in upper trough digging into southeast sun...then 
gradually lifting out by late Tuesday. This will combine with moist and 
unstable atmos to produce scattered to broken convective coverage 
just about any time...and went with 50 to 60 probability of precipitation most of period. 
Isolated wet downbursts will be a threat per Storm Prediction Center outlooks. Leaned to 
mostly cloudy for sky condition with abundant convective debris 
expected. MOS blend for temperatures. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/... 
Ridge will weaken beginning the period...and models show surface trough 
strengthening Wed/thur...which will help to trigger better 
shower/tstorm chances. Overall can expect typical summertime 
weather...generally diurnal convection through the period. Highs 
generally in the low 90s/upper 80s...and overnight lows in the low 
70s. 


&& 


Aviation /20z Saturday through Thursday/... 
an unsettled period will continue over the terminals the next 
several days as an increasingly moist and unstable airmass combine 
with upper level support resulting in scattered rain showers/ts across the area. 
Much of the time VFR conditions will prevail except when rain showers/ts are 
present. Wind speeds will generally be SW around 10 to 15 knots during 
the day with lighter speeds at night and a slight diurnal backing of 
the winds during the afternoon hours. 


A somewhat drier airmass and less favorable forcing will lead to 
less coverage and mainly diurnal convection on Tuesday and Wednesday. 


&& 


Marine... 
currently seeing SW winds 10 to 20 knots over area waters (highest 
central) with seas mainly 3 feet areawide. Moderate SW flow to 
continue over the area through the forecast period with Bermuda 
ridge offshore and weak troughing over inland areas. Mainly looking 
at 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon and evening hours with a 
decrease in wind speeds to the 10 to 15 knots range overnight into the 
early morning hours with loss of differential heating. Wavewatch is 
still indicating a period of higher seas (4 to 6 ft) occurring late 
sun into early Monday for central and southern waters. It is 
interesting to note however that wavewatch has been a foot overdone 
the whole day today as it forecast 4 feet seas for the central and 
southern waters but only 3 feet seas have been occurring. Decided to 
cap seas at 5 feet late sun into early Monday and let later shifts 
evaluate trends/model performance overnight to determine if a short 
period of advisory conditions is warranted during the late sun into 
early Monday time frame. 


Ww3 guidance continues to indicate east/southeast swell overspreading the area 
by Tuesday/Jul 08 and continuing through next weekend as ts Bertha 
continues tracking west/northwest towards the western Atlantic. Significant 
uncertainty/model spread exists at this time with regards to the 
track Bertha will take during the beginning of next week. Despite 
track uncertainty there is reasonable confidence that the forecast 
long period swell (2-3 feet/14-15 sec) will begin to reach the NC 
coastal waters by middle week which would result in a prolonged 
period of higher rip current threat along area beaches. 


Rip currents...low threat all beaches for sun. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...jbm 
near term...jbm 
short term...jbm 
long term...clq 
aviation...jw 
marine...jw