059 
fxus65 kmso 052052 
afdmso 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Missoula Montana 
252 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Discussion...southwesterly flow aloft will dominate the northern 
rockies this afternoon and tonight. Southwest Montana continues 
to have sufficient instability to create isolated thunderstorms. A 
few weak cells have already passed through the area and other 
cells will develop through early evening. A pressure gradient over 
the northern rockies today will linger into the overnight period 
tonight creating gusty winds. Winds will decrease through early 
morning. A weak shortwave trough will pass through north central 
Idaho and western Montana on Sunday. This shortwave will create 
showers in the morning for northwest Montana then a slight chance 
for showers and thunderstorms will occur for the rest of the area 
during the afternoon and evening. Skies will clear out overnight 
Sunday as a shortwave high pressure ridge moves into the area 
for Monday. 


Tuesday through Saturday...west northwest flow will prevail over 
western Montana and north central Idaho on Tuesday as a broad 
upper level ridge builds in the Pacific Ocean. As a result...a gradual 
warming trend is expected through the middle of the week with 
relatively benign weather. Temperatures should hover around the 
low 90s by Wednesday which will be the warmest day this week. 
Strong afternoon instability in southwest Montana and north central 
Idaho will allow for some cumulus clouds to develop on Tuesday and 
Wednesday in those areas...but lack of moisture should prevent showers 
or thunderstorms from developing. On Thursday the region will come 
under the influence of a broad upper level trough. Most of the 
energy and moisture from this system will stay north of Canadian 
border...but may see some increasing cloudiness through the day. 
Friday and Saturday will see two quick shortwaves which will bring 
more clouds into the area and a slight chance for showers and 
thunderstorms in northwest Montana and the Idaho Panhandle. 
Northwesterly winds will usher in cooler air and bring 
temperatures back down to normal for this time of year for the end 
of the week. 


&& 


Aviation...residual instability and moisture have allowed 
isolated convection to develop over southwest Montana...primarily 
in The Butte area. This will diminish toward dusk. Elsewhere only 
scattered middle clouds have persisted...and these too will diminish 
after sunset. The westerly gradient producing gusty winds across 
the region will slacken overnight...but likely be stronger Sunday 
as a shortwave trough passes. 


&& 


Mso watches/warnings/advisories... 
Montana...none. 
Idaho...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...kitsmiller 
long term....Foster 
aviation...Whitmore