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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Glasgow Montana 
305 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Short term...for northeast Montana...tonight through Monday... 
quiet evening in stock this evening as the cold front has sunk 
far enough south and east of the County Warning Area. Expect the few -tsra that 
moved off the snowies not to be a nuisance much longer as weak 
upper ridging continues to build overhead. This ridging then departs 
the region Sunday afternoon providing better chances for some 
convection area wide. The best chances should be focused across 
the southeast zones later in the day given proximity of the 
now weakening surface front expected to slowly lift north. 


Most significant change to the inherited forecast was to lower high 
temperatures on Monday /mainly across the north/ as various nwp 
have become more aggressive with a cold front wrapping in behind a 
weak surface wave. Also introduced a few probability of precipitation in the east Monday 
afternoon near this front...although models are at odds with the 
available instability with the WRF being the most unstable. Mcz 


Long term...Monday night through Saturday... 
only minor changes to the grids to improve consistency. Warm and 
dry weather expected through much of the extended period as Flat 
Ridge moves across the region. Moderate agreement among models 
regarding convective chances for next weekend as upper trough digs 
south across the Pacific northwest for increasing southwest flow 
into Montana...instead of sliding trough across the Canadian 
prairies. Will keep slight chance probability of precipitation for end of the period as 
either pattern could result in convection. Ebert 


Previous long term discussion...models are in decent agreement 
for the extended period. Look for northwest flow aloft for Tuesday 
and Wednesday that will become more zonal by Thursday as a Flat 
Ridge moves in from the west. This will bring dry weather with 
near normal temperatures. Flow aloft becomes southwest on Friday 
as upper trough moves slowly inland across British Columbia. Both 
the GFS and European model (ecmwf) close the trough into an upper low as it moves 
into Alberta and Saskatchewan next Saturday. It appears that 
Montana will be on the dry side of the system at this time. Will 
limit chance of thunderstorms to next Saturday which is when a 
cold front is expected. Forrester 


&& 


Aviation... 
gusty winds and afternoon cumulus will diminish with sunset. Light 
winds and clear skies expected overnight as high pressure builds 
into the region. Rae 




&& 


Glasgow watches/warnings/advisories... 
lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Fort Peck 
Lake. 


&& 


$$ 


Weather.Gov/Glasgow