677 
fxus65 kmso 050922 
afdmso 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Missoula Montana 
322 am MDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Discussion...after a very hot and convective Independence 
day...the rest of the weekend will be cooler with isolated to 
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the intermountain west. 
The upper ridge has pushed east leaving a more zonal cooler upper 
level flow over the region. Still have upper level waves passing 
through this flow and ample low level moisture for cloud and 
shower development today and this evening. Temperatures will be 
about 10 degrees cooler than Friday...which is near normal for 
this time of year. Showers will be diurnally driven and will 
diminish by sunset. Sunday...a weak upper level trough will move 
through north central Idaho and western Montana. The latest runs 
now indicate more energy moving through northwest Montana than 
previous runs so have added afternoon and evening convection to 
account for this. With more energy moving through the 
region...temperatures will also be warming due to better mixing. 
Monday north central Idaho and western Montana will be under a 
weak upper level ridge and little moisture. Therefore the driest 
day of the short term. 


Warm and dry conditions will persist through most of next week as 
the ridge of high pressure strengthens slightly over the northern 
rockies. Temperatures will slowly edge upward through the work 
week...approaching the middle 90s once again by Thursday in many 
valley locations. Forecast models begin to show a change in the 
upper level pattern by Friday...hinting at a trough digging into 
the region. However...due to differences in the strength of this 
feature between model solutions...have made very few changes for 
the time being beyond Thursday. 


&& 


Aviation...progressive upper level flow with weak impulses and 
residual moisture will keep isolated to scattered showers and 
thunderstorms over north central Idaho and western Montana today 
through early this evening. Mountains and passes may be obscured 
from clouds and precipitation at times through this evening. Expect 
improving conditions after sunset. 




&& 


Mso watches/warnings/advisories... 
Montana...none. 
Idaho...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...Mead 
long term....via 
aviation...Mead