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fxus63 ksgf 061715 
afdsgf 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO 
1215 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2008 


Update... 




Rain has continued to spread east into the Ozarks at midday but 
was showing an overall decreasing trend. This activity was associated 
with a rather vigorous shortwave tracking out of Kansas and 80-100 
knots jet streaking across the Midwest. Despite the drier airmass to 
the east the strong synoptic scale lift and isentropic ascent will 
support scattered to numerous light showers into much of the 
Missouri Ozarks during the day. However expect a continued 
diminishing trend as the best forcing lifts to the northeast. The 
clouds and rainfall will keep temperatures unseasonably cool with 
afternoon temperatures at most locations remaining in the 60s. Forecast 
grids and products have been updated to reflect this. 


Foster 


&& 


Discussion... 


We are getting into a rather messy weather pattern that looks to 
continue into much of next week. A long wave trough over central 
North America will remain intact through the period...with several 
pieces of energy digging down the back side of the trough. This 
will give US several chances for precipitation over the next seven 
days...and keep temperatures at or below normal. 


Today...eyes are peeled back to the west early this morning as 
elevated convection has initiated along the Kansas/Oklahoma 
border. This convection is being driven by isentropic upglide in 
the 305 to 310 k potential temperature layer ahead of an 
approaching upper level jet streak and short wave trough. These 
sources of lift will shift east into portions of the Missouri 
Ozarks today while tending to weaken. The best lift will generally 
remain north of the Interstate and pass through the region this 
morning. This is where/when the highest probability of precipitation were placed today. 
The precipitation will initially have to overcome some fairly dry 
low levels. Not looking at much instability...but a few lightning 
strikes will be possible across southeast Kansas and western 
Missouri. Temperatures will be held down by the clouds and 
precipitation. Would not be surprised if portions of west central 
Missouri do not reach 70 degrees today. 


Tonight and Sunday...a rather similar scenario is expected for 
this period. More convection will fire across the plains of Kansas 
and Oklahoma. This activity is expected to shift east into 
southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks late tonight and Sunday 
morning. Synoptic scale lift with this batch of precipitation may 
actually be a little bit stronger and over a larger portion of the 
atmospheric column. Temperatures will again be tricky given the 
expected precipitation and cloud cover. May be able to tack on a 
few degrees to high temperatures versus those of today if the main 
area of precipitation exits to the east quick enough. 


Sunday night through Monday night...a front will initially sharpen 
up to our north and then shift south through the region. This will 
keep a decent threat for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast 
at least into Monday night. The best chance for precipitation 
looks like it will be Post frontal along and north of the 
Interstate. Temperatures will remain at or slightly below normal. 


Tuesday through Friday...medium range models have been somewhat 
consistent in advertising a stronger upper level wave digging 
southeast out of the Canadian rockies. This will likely provide 
our next decent shot at precipitation sometime towards the end of 
next work week. Before that time...the midweek period looks fairly 
dry as the upper level flow temporarily flattens. Temperatures 
look to be close to normal. 


Schaumann 




&& 


Aviation... 


Overcast conditions and scattered showers will continue today. 
Areas of MVFR ceilings near 2500 feet and visibilities of 3 to 5 
miles will be possible in areas of rain. The precipitation will 
show an overall diminishing trend during the afternoon. Showers 
will again show an increase late tonight into Sunday morning 
across far southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. Given the very 
moist low level conditions areas of IFR fog and low stratus will 
be possible toward sunrise Sunday. 


Foster 




&& 


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories... 
MO...none. 
Kansas...none. 
&& 


$$