167 
fxus63 ksgf 240747 
afdsgf 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO 
247 am CDT Thursday Jul 24 2008 


Discussion... 


Main focus will be with thunderstorm chances and the warm 
temperatures. 


Closely monitoring mesoscale convective system over western Iowa into northern Missouri 
early this morning. Low level jet continues to feed moisture into 
this system from the south and corfidi vectors are pointing almost 
due south into the area for the next several hours. Have increased 
probability of precipitation today a bit further to the west into west central Missouri. 
Highest probability of precipitation today will likely occur over central Missouri with 
the remnants of this mornings mesoscale convective system. This will likely affect 
temperatures significantly over northeastern sections of the County Warning Area 
and will likely have a significant temperature difference from 
northeast to southwest today. Southwest sections of the County Warning Area will 
have the highest instability and cant rule out isolated to widely 
scattered convection this afternoon and evening...but lowest probability of precipitation 
will exist in this region. 


Cant rule out thunderstorm chances on almost a daily basis as 
upper energy will continue to drop southeast over the ridge and 
into the area. Highest probability of precipitation look to continue over the northeast 
section of the County Warning Area through the short term period. 


Warmest temperatures will continue to be over the southwest County Warning Area as 
this area will likely continue to dry out and have the highest 
850-700 mb air. Extended GFS MOS brings 100 degree temperatures into the 
western County Warning Area by Sunday but this may be overdone at this point. 


Lindenberg 


&& 


Aviation... 


Overnight will continue to monitor the development and track of a 
mesoscale convective system in northern Nebraska. After 12z...residual mesoscale convective system along with 
additional development of thunderstorms from outflow boundaries 
could affect ksgf. To account for this...have included vicinity 
thunderstorms at ksgf for portions of the morning and during the 
afternoon when additional thunderstorms could develop as 
instability increases with the heating of the day. Future 
amendments and the 12z taf will have a better handle on the 
timing and location of this convection. The convection will 
likely remain to the northeast of the kjln terminal and have kept 
thunderstorms out of the taf. 


Angle 




&& 


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories... 
MO...none. 
Kansas...none. 
&& 


$$