496 
fxus63 keax 050759 
afdeax 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
259 am CDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Discussion... 


Weak surface ridge was shifting east into the Great Lakes with weak 
return flow to the west in the high terrain. A narrow band of 
isentropic lift/800 mb thetae advection was generating a narrow band of 
convection from northestern Nebraska to central/eastern Kansas. This activity will shift 
slowly southeast through the morning before dissipating by late this morning 
as the isentropic lift wanes. The convection is not expected to reach 
the County Warning Area. 


Otherwise...upper ridge to slowly build east into the plains today 
with warmer 800 mb SW winds through the weekend. Guidance looks good 
except mav guidance looks too warm for today. 


Only other concern is the potential for elevated convection for the 
eastern grids due to weak isentropic lift late tonight. Condensation 
pressure deficits are quite high. Therefore...will keep probability of precipitation very low. 


Db 


&& 


Aviation... 


VFR conditions will prevail. Scattered-broken middle level ac deck 
possible late tonight into Saturday morning. Middle-level lift should 
generate a scattered-broken ac deck late tonight into Saturday morning. It may 
also generate scattered convection over eastern Kansas. Expect any precipitation 
will stay west of the taf sites. Afternoon cumulus is also once again 
expected. 


&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
MO...none. 
Kansas...none. 
$$