098 
fxus63 ksgf 212006 
afdsgf 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO 
306 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Discussion... 


A rather unsettled stretch is in store for the Missouri Ozarks 
into early next week. It is not going to rain the entire 
period...but many areas will get wet. Main forecast focus was 
indeed on probability of precipitation. Will also have some other concerns...such as fog 
potential tonight as well as what should be a slow warming trend 
next week. 


Tonight...a shearing upper level wave will slowly move east into 
far western Missouri by sunrise. The scattered to numerous 
showers and thunderstorms present on radar this afternoon will 
begin to diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating. 
May see showers and storms hold on a bit longer across south 
central and central Missouri along an area of weak low level 
convergence. Will likely see at least partial clearing across the 
area...especially across southeast Kansas and western Missouri. 
However...we are looking at a pretty favorable setup for 
developing stratus and eventual stratus build down late tonight. 
Winds may be a bit high for widespread dense fog...but we could 
easily see patchy development...especially in protected areas. 


Friday through Saturday...that upper level wave will continue to 
shear and slowly drift east. This upper level wave and a shear 
axis will likely provide a focus for more shower and thunderstorm 
development. The best chances will again be east of Highway 65. 
Will also need to watch up across central Missouri as a cold front 
approaches from the north on Saturday. Convection along this front 
may approach central Missouri by late Saturday afternoon. Should 
see a wide temperature range on Friday as clouds and precipitation 
keep highs down in the low 80s. More breaks out west should allow 
highs to jump into the upper 80s. 


Saturday night through Monday...that front will slowly creep south 
through the Missouri Ozarks and southeast Kansas. Weak convergence 
along this feature will keep the chance for showers and 
thunderstorms going through the period. Temperatures will remain 
just a few degrees below normal. 


Monday night into Thursday...not seeing any strong signals for 
precipitation for much of the period. Will still need to watch the 
progress/evolution of that front. May also see a stronger piece of 
energy cut across the northern tier of states later in the week 
which could send a front into the area. Temperatures should slowly 
warm through the period as 850 mb temperatures nudge into the 
upper teens celsius. This would result in temperatures finally 
getting back up to normal. 


Schaumann 


&& 


Aviation... 


Ceilings...precipitation...and visibilities were all aviation forecast 
challenges for the 18z tafs. The cut off upper level low continues 
to pull in copious amounts of Gulf moisture into southern 
Missouri...resulting in MVFR ceilings and scattered sprinkles/light 
rain showers. Due to the spotty nature of these light showers...I 
inserted a tempo mention of -ra. 


Observations across Oklahoma and Arkansas suggested that the late 
morning cumulus that developed had bases between 1500 - 2500 feet. 
Feel as though these MVFR ceilings will persist a good chunk of the 
24 hour taf period. However...there are some indications that 
ceilings could fall to IFR later tonight. 


Regarding visibilities...the rain showers should remain light enough 
for VFR visibilities. However...patchy fog will develop over 
southern Missouri tonight...creating MVFR fog at the Joplin and 
Springfield airports. Patchy IFR fog will occur in deeper valleys 
of the Ozark terrain. 


Cramer 


&& 


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories... 
MO...none. 
Kansas...none. 
&& 


$$