850 
fxus63 klsx 051959 
afdlsx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service St Louis MO 
259 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Discussion... 
/256 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2008/ 
surface ridge of high pressure extended from the Great Lakes region 
across east MO. Dewpoints remained in the 50s for a very comfortable 
day for early July. System will retreat into the New England states 
which will allow a warm front to move across the region Sunday 
night. 


The next cold front is forecast to extend from the upper Midwest 
across southeast Nebraska into western Kansas by Tuesday morning. The GFS and 
European model (ecmwf) are now fairly similar in forecasting that the front will sag 
into the region by Tuesday night. The two models are similar in 
forecasting that a short wave will roll across the Midwest Tuesday 
night or early Wednesday. Expect widespread rain as the front moves 
across the area Tuesday night. Canadian high over the upper Midwest 
will build into the region and should be able to push the front into 
Tennessee/Arkansas by early Thursday. Cooler/drier weather is not expected to 
last long though as upper ridge is forecast to build across the 
Midwest by Saturday. 


Tps 
&& 


Aviation... 
/1201 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2008/ 
for the 18z tafs...light Ely to southeasterly winds will continue through 
tonight. Skies will be vrf through end of period. Winds should veer 
around sunrise tomorrow and become southerly. Models indicate an mesoscale convective system 
forming across the Dakotas this evening and tracking into Iowa in the 
early morning hours. If system moves faster than models 
indicate...thunderstorms and rain could be in vcy of uin by sunrise. At this time...think 
any thunderstorms and rain will remain north in Iowa. 


Tilly 


&& 


Lsx watches/warnings/advisories... 
MO...none. 
Illinois...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Weather forecast office lsx