597 
fxus63 keax 051131 
afdeax 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
630 am CDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Previous discussion... 
/259 am CDT Sat Jul 5 2008/ 


Weak surface ridge was shifting east into the Great Lakes with weak 
return flow to the west in the high terrain. A narrow band of 
isentropic lift/800 mb thetae advection was generating a narrow band of 
convection from northestern Nebraska to central/eastern Kansas. This activity will shift 
slowly southeast through the morning before dissipating by late this morning 
as the isentropic lift wanes. The convection is not expected to reach 
the County Warning Area. 


Otherwise...upper ridge to slowly build east into the plains today 
with warmer 800 mb SW winds through the weekend. Guidance looks good 
except mav guidance looks too warm for today. 


Only other concern is the potential for elevated convection for the 
eastern grids due to weak isentropic lift late tonight. Condensation 
pressure deficits are quite high. Therefore...will keep probability of precipitation very 
low. 


Db 


&& 


Aviation... 


Modest isentropic lift continues to develop shower and thunderstorm 
activity 125 miles or so west of the terminal locations this 
morning. Expect currently robust convection to rapidly wane as low level jet 
weakens and trajectories back during the next few hours. Will not 
rule out an isolated thunderstorms and rain reaching towards the County Warning Area...however 
convection will likely not be widespread enough to warrant a mention 
in the taf. Through today...h850 Theta-E axis will slowly slide 
northeast across the County Warning Area...bringing along with it a sct050 ceiling 
by middle/late morning. Expect Theta-E axis to once again become 
active later on this evening...despite a less than favorable 
environment further to the east. However...this development will 
likely take place to the east of the terminals...with VFR conditions 
prevailing to the west. 


Dux 


&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
MO...none. 
Kansas...none. 


$$