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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 
851 PM CST Thursday Mar 11 2010 


Discussion...main challenge overnight will be rain placement and 
amounts. The 00z NAM appears to have a good handle on the current 
situation and will follow. Strongest radar returns currently exist 
across the Lisbon...Fargo...Mahnomen...Bemidji area. This lines up 
with location of 850mb/300mb jet. These features slowly lift north 
through the night and weaken toward 12z. Thus...current rain area 
should also slowly lift north through the night. Will need to 
extend higher probability of precipitation and quantitative precipitation forecast values into the northern forecast area. Most areas 
will receive 0.25 to 0.50 inches by morning from this latest rain 
area (except for the dvl basin and locations close to the 
international border). 


Road surface temperatures still 34f to 36f...so even if air temperatures 
get to freezing...freezing rain should not be a concern. Low-level 
warm air advection overnight brings entire column above freezing 
across the far west...so took out all snow mention for tonight. 
Increasing winds and incoming rain has caused most residual 1/4sm 
visibility to increase. A few isolated 1/4sm visibility reports remain...but 
expect these to improve by midnight. 


&& 


Aviation...predominantly IFR conds will continue throughout the 
majority of current taf periods. Rain showers will continue into 
the early morning hours Friday. Expect northerly winds to increase 
over the night...making it more difficult to get visibilities less than 
one mile...but with the saturated low levels being further 
enhanced by two days of melting...expect vlifr stratus and visibilities 
in the one to Three Mile range to persist through the day Friday. 


&& 


Hydrology...the first round of flood products has been 
issued...milder temperatures leading to melting of snow has 
combined with up to one inch of rain in some areas to prompt river 
flood watches for parts of the southern Red River valley. Watches 
have been posted for Fargo and Wahpeton on the mainstem 
red...Dilworth Hawley and Sabin on the Buffalo...and Abercrombie 
on the Wild Rice. The projection for the next 7 days is for the 
possibility of minor to moderate flooding. Forecasts will be 
refined over the next several days and upgrades to warnings will 
become possible as forecast certainty increases. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 315 PM CST Thursday Mar 11 2010/ 


Short term... 
forecast problem is rainfall and temperatures the next few days. Models 
handling the current wave of precipitation well with main axis of precipitation over 
the central/southern Red River valley this evening before more of a 
drizzly pattern overnight. Could be some dense fog once again 
overnight but north winds near 10 kts may help prevent extremely low 
visibilities. Quantitative precipitation forecast amts 18z today to 06z tonight in the 0.25 to 0.50 range 
south to one tenth north. 


Another wave is forecast to round the upper low over Iowa and 
affect central into far southeast ND/eastern South Dakota Friday midday-aftn. So did 
increase probability of precipitation far south for this. 


Temperatures next 24 hours should not change too much...lowering a few 
degrees tonight but still above freezing all but far northwestern 
forecast area. Will maintain rain/snow mix west of Valley City-Lakota per 
850 mb and 925 mb temperatures and some higher terrain. 


Drier air will try to move in from the northwest late Friday- 
Friday night and partial clearing may make it into dvl region. 
Otherwise clouds will remain. Clouds will remain in force it 
appears through the weekend as another vorticity lobe moves back into 
eastern ND Sat aftn-sun. Did keep low probability of precipitation for -ra far southeast zones 
Saturday-Sat night and expanded low probability of precipitation for -ra over most areas 
Sunday-Sunday night. With the clouds in place temperature ranges will be 
small. 


Long... /Sun night through Thursday/ 
long term starts with models in general agreement with a short wave 
pushing across eastern North Dakota early in the period. Differences 
with this wave are the GFS is a deeper wave that produces quantitative precipitation forecast across 
the County Warning Area...while the European model (ecmwf) is rather dry. With the GFS producing some 
rather extreme bulls eyes...continued European model (ecmwf) flavored dry 
forecast...although did increase sky cover on Monday. After this 
waves moves through should see more sunlight allowing temperatures to 
increase into the 40s middle next week...before a possible decent rain 
producers moves in beyond day 7...followed by a sharp drop in temperatures 
and a cold spell which should slow the melting process. 


&& 


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories... 
ND...none. 
Minnesota...none. 
&& 


$$ 
Tg