783 
fxus63 kmpx 060024 aaa 
afdmpx 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota 
724 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Update... 


Updated for 00z aviation discussion below. 


&& 


Discussion... 
/issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2008/ 


The forecast challenge tonight and over the next few days are 
precipitation chances. A short wave trough depicted in the latest infrared 
satellite loop will continue to advance east over the upper Midwest 
by midday Sunday. After a couple of nice days...the weather pattern 
will transition to more wetter pattern as a series of short wave 
troughs pass over the upper Midwest over the next few days. No 
widespread rain showers or thunderstorms are anticipated at this time. 
The latest composite radar image showed a linear area of showers and 
isolated thunderstorms ahead of the shortwave trough over western Minnesota 
into eastern South Dakota. These showers and storms are expected to 
move east over into central Minnesota before daybreak Sunday. Dewpoints 
have surge into the upper 60s and lower 70s over parts of west 
central Minnesota. Airmass should continue to moisten ahead of the trough 
tonight and Sunday. 


Current it look like the best area of receiving some rain will be 
over the southwest half of our County Warning Area tonight and Sunday morning. 
Another stronger shortwave as indicated by the nam80 will move over 
the upper Midwest on Monday. 


By middle week of next week...the upper air pattern transition back to 
more Summer-like pattern with upper ridge amplify back over the 
western half of the Continental U.S.. so warm and dry weather anticipate for 
much of the forecast area during the latter half of the week. 


&& 


Aviation.../00z taf issuance/ 


Precipitation chances are the main challenges with this set of tafs...with 
cold front over the eastern Dakotas this evening set to move across the sites tmrw. 
Nose of secondary low level jet will edge into southwestern Minnesota tonight...which will 
lead to thunderstorms and rain development to mainly affect rwf...but possibly 
stc/msp/rnh toward morning. Shortwave set to interact with the cold front tmrw 
afternoon will lead to scattered thunderstorms and rain development...mainly at 
msp/rnh/eau...but possibly rwf/stc. Highest confidence at 
eau/rnh...so have included tempo groups toward the end of the 
valid taf period. Surface winds will become wrly during the late morning and 
afternoon...after the frontal passage. 


&& 


Mpx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Minnesota...none. 
WI...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Jvm/kat