174 
fxus63 kfsd 052030 
afdfsd 


Area forecast discussion for southeast South Dakota/southwest Minnesota/northwest Iowa 
National Weather Service Sioux Falls South Dakota 
330 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Discussion... 
13 to 14 degree cap in place over much of County Warning Area today and with cloud 
cover over central South Dakota preventing highs from reaching convective 
temperatures...I don't expect any storm development until front and cooler 
air moves into place later this evening. Bought off on GFS solution 
of convection developing in ND and then it back building into South Dakota 
tonight. Mesoscale convective system should form tonight and move into southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa 
towards morning. Southward extent of precipitation is up in the air...but 
don't expect much in southwestern portion of County Warning Area. Severe chances are 
there...but right now I would expect a hail threat early...then 
evolve into a wind and heavy rain event. 


Sun should see remaining convection will be sliding southeastward through northwest Iowa and 
should exit the area by middle morning. Short wave will push fnt into far southern County Warning Area by 
afternoon and may be the focus more more thunderstorm by late middle to late afternoon as 
short wave moves across northern Nebraska. Will go with highest probability of precipitation across the S Sun afternoon 
into Monday morning. Will remain active on Monday as yet another short wave tracks eastward 
across South Dakota. GFS seems to be too far S across Nebraska with model concensus 
further north across South Dakota. So with that in mind will go with scattered thunderstorm across County Warning Area 
Monday afternoon exiting eastern County Warning Area Monday night. This could be a more widespread 
soaker as opposed to the systems tonight into Sun night. Temperatures both 
sun and Monday will greatly be affected by cloud cover. Will pbly see less 
cloud Sun afternoon as opposed to Monday afternoon so will go with warmer temperatures 
sun. 


Cold front will drop southeastward across County Warning Area Tuesday and will bring cooler air into County Warning Area 
for Wednesday. Will keep small probability of precipitation across County Warning Area Tuesday afternoon adn evening with this 
fnt...but instabil is not all that great. 


In the extended...will keep forecast dry through Friday...with another chance thunderstorm 
Sat as next fnt moves through. 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions will continue through period. Expect scattered -tsra 
development around 06z and slowly sag southeast. Would only expect a 
brief period of MVFR conditions as thunderstorms and rain move through. 


&& 


Fsd watches/warnings/advisories... 


South Dakota...none. 
Minnesota...none. 
Iowa...none. 
NE...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Heitkamp