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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 
321 am CDT Thursday Jul 24 2008 


Short term... 
the main challenge for this forecast will be convective chances 
initially...then temperatures. A line of broken convection has developed 
from southeast Manitoba south to the east of the Red River valley. 
Showalters are around -2c along with a 35kt low level jet. The NAM is 
picking up on current situation the best...and like the slower 
timing so will utilize. 


For today...there could be some patchy fog in the valley this 
morning if skies clear close to the trough. Otherwise...expect 
sunshine through early afternoon along and west of the valley. As 
the surface front approaches the south and east this afternoon/evening...storms 
should develop this afternoon. There will be a shortwave entering 
the western Dakotas late today...that should aid convective 
development. There will be ample instability...and dewpoints near 
70 perhaps in the south later today. Therefore...a few severe 
storms will be possible. Deep layered shear will be rather weak 
th0ugh...around 25-30kt from 0-6km. This may limit the coverage of 
severe storms...so for now won't mention in the grids. Storm Prediction Center does 
have the south and east in a slight risk though...and will mention 
in the severe weather potential statement/weather story. Temperatures should warm above normal for most areas 
today within the warm sector. 


For tonight/Fri...a cold front will pass through the region. There 
will be enough MUCAPE/lift tonight ahead of the shortwave for some 
thunderstorms. The threat for thunder will move into the eastern 
areas Friday morning...then out of the area by afternoon with precipitable waters  
falling below an inch. Temperatures will cool some from today...and fall 
a bit below normal west/ cooler northwest surface flow. 


For Sat/sun...high pressure will build into the region and provide 
plentiful sunshine and seasonal temperatures. 


Long term... 
the threat for thunderstorms will return Mon-Wed...as several 
shortwaves top the ridge over the Central Plains. 


&& 


Aviation... 
mainly MVFR ceilings should prevail through the early morning at 
most sites. Patchy fog may develop from 09-13z...and we will 
monitor this as dewpoints are high and visibilities could be reduced in 
areas where it clears this morning. 


&& 


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories... 
ND...none. 
Minnesota...none. 
&& 


$$ 
Dk