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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 
1140 PM CDT Thursday Mar 18 2010 


Updated for new hydrology discussion 


Hydrology... 
little or no precipitation is expected through the weekend. Light 
rain or snow will be possible for Tuesday and Wednesday and is expected to 
have little impact on the rivers. Snow would be more likely in the 
northern valley while rain or snow more likely in the southern Red 
River valley. Temperatures falling well below freezing at night will 
eventually slow down runoff into the rivers. Northwest winds gusting 
up to 25 to 30 miles per hour will turn more north northwest tonight and Friday 
and slowly diminish. Some wave action may occur over open waters. 


With cooler weather over ND last couple weeks...ND tributaries were 
slower along with the melt. Ice jam problems were reported at Minto 
Thursday morning and will be possible tonight and Friday. Also ice jams are 
possible at Grafton. Ice was flowing through Hallock. Ice on the 
Sheyenne was not moving at Kindred. Gages that may be ice affected 
are at Lisbon...Valley city...Minto...Hallock and Grafton. Higher 
releases from Bald Hill dam should get ice moving on the Sheyenne. 


West Fargo...Harwood...Hendrum...Shelly and Climax will continue to 
be backwater affected from the main Stem Red River. Many Minnesota 
tributaries near the Red River are forecast to be steady or fall. Minnesota 
sites forecast to rise near the Red River will be those affected by 
backwater. 


&& 




Aviation.../0z taf issuance/ 


Issued by National Weather Service Duluth... 
ceilings over taf locations of 3-4k feet expected to lower to MVFR range 
by 4z at all sites. Gusty northwest winds of 25 to 30 kts will continue 
through the taf period. Look for ceilings to go above MVFR at 
gfk...far...and bji by middle morning Friday but staying MVFR at dvl 
and tvf through Friday evening. 


&& 


Short term... 
the main forecast challenges are precipitation and temperatures. 
When looking at the latest surface analysis...an area of low 
pressure is centered in west ont...with a pre-frontal trough along a bde 
to far line with the cold front extending through S Manitoba. When 
comparing the models...the models remain in pretty good agreement 
into the weekend....so ended up using a model blend for the forecast. 


When looking at current temperatures...the cold front will move through 
tonight with the winds turning from SW to northwest and then north as the 
coldest air moves in. In addition...weak 700mb lift but strong 850mb 
cold air advection will provide the potential for a few flurries through the night 
an into Friday morning. Temperatures are expected to fall into the 15 
to 25 degree range tonight...with highs on Friday in the upper 20s to 
lower 30s. 


A surface ridge moves through for Friday night and Sat...keeping the 
area dry with temperatures near to slightly below normal. Then for 
Sat night into sun...a clipper moves through S Canada...switching 
the winds back to the SW-W...which will provide slightly warmer 
temperatures...with no precipitation at this time. 


Long term [sun night - wed]... 
the main challenges in the long term forecast are temperatures...and 
precipitation chances associated with a possible weather system during the 
middle of next week. The models are somewhat poor agreement...so 
leaned on consistency today. 


It appears a low pressure system will develop across the central or 
North Plains early next week. This system will begin to increase 
cloud cover Sun night and Monday night...and could bring precipitation to the 
area Monday night into Wednesday. The models are so far indicating the low 
pressure system will pass through South Dakota and S Minnesota. This gives the 
S valley and wc Minnesota the best chances for any precipitation. Think the precipitation 
will generally fall as a rain/snow mix across the S valley and 
wc Minnesota...while snow farther north. It currently does not appear this 
system will drop a heavy amount of precipitation...but there is potential 
for quarter inch of liquid equivalent across the S. As for 
temperatures...expect highs in the low to upper 30s with overnight 
lows in the teens to low 20s. 


&& 




Fgf watches/warnings/advisories... 
ND...areal Flood Warning for Richland...Ransom...Sargent...Cass... 
Barnes...trail...Steele...Griggs...Grand Forks...eastern Walsh... 
and Pembina counties. 


Minnesota...areal Flood Warning for Kittson...western Marshall...western 
Polk...Norman...Clay and Wilkin counties. 


&& 


$$ 
Ng/dtr 
aviation...weather forecast office dlh 
hydrology...jh/ch