381 
fxus63 kdtx 051106 
afddtx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac Michigan 
706 am EDT Sat Jul 5 2008 




Aviation... 


A brief period of shallow fog...between 3-5sm...will affect kdtw 
with no issues elsewhere. VFR conditions are then expected through 
the day as high pressure remains in place. East wind at kdtw/kdet 
may be enhanced for a few hours during the early evening due to a 
lake breeze...but windspeeds will be 10 knots or less in general. 
Will include a mention of 5-6sm br/haze again by 06z due to the high 
pressure providing nearly calm winds again tonight. 


&& 


Previous discussion...issued 350 am EDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Short term...today 


High pressure will remain centered over the area providing mostly 
sunny skies and mild conditions. The cool Canadian airmass has been 
able to moderate slightly...so the highs of 70-75 yesterday will be 
replaced by 75-80. With light east/northeast flow persisting...the 
coolest readings will be down wind of the lakes Huron and Erie. In 
fact...locations on the immediate shoreline may not climb much above 
70. 


Long term...tonight through Friday 


High pressure will keep dry conditions and a gradual moderation to 
above normal temperatures by the end of the weekend and early next 
week. The next opportunity for precipitation still looks to be on 
Monday with a fairly wet period likely in the offing from late 
Monday through Tuesday. 05/oo UTC models are all in general 
agreement on evolution of main features through the period. Initial 
short wave evident on WV imagery over Montana will move east 
northeastward across southern Canada and bring a weakening cold 
front by 12utc Monday from ssm to grb to the Central High plains. 
From there the front will either stall or slowly wash out across 
northern lower Michigan waiting for the next more vigorous wave now 
approaching the Pacific northwest. This short wave will bring a 
stronger surface low and cold front through the region by Tuesday 
evening. Best chance for significant precipitation will be Monday 
night and Tuesday as this system moves through with possibility of 
severe weather Tuesday afternoon in deeper shear and better than 
2000 joules/km2 prognosticated by GFS. 


Maximum temperatures in the upper 80s likely for Monday and Tuesday... although 
degree of cloud debris could be problematic. Have elected to drop 
temperatures a degree or two as a result. Also lowered maximum temperatures a bit 
Thursday based on latest GFS guidance and evidence of the stronger 
front coming through middle week. 


Marine... 


Pretty quiet marine-wise through the weekend. Next period of note 
for mariners will be thunderstorms threats primarily Monday and 
Tuesday... with strong thunderstorm winds likely associated with 
convection on Tuesday. Following cold frontal passage late 
Tuesday... expect the possibility of small craft advisories in 
west to northweserly winds Tuesday night through Wednesday night. 


&& 


DTX watches/warnings/advisories... 
Michigan...none. 
Lake Huron...none. 
Lake St Clair...none. 
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Aviation.....Dg 
short term...dg 
long term....05 
marine.......dg 




You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online 
at www.Weather.Gov/Detroit (all lower case).