989 
fxus61 kgyx 051827 
afdgyx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
227 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Synopsis... 
mostly a southwest flow aloft through the period with a couple of 
short waves shearing off as they make their way to the northeast. 
Upper flow finally swings northwest Thursday night as upper low 
tracks north of the region with that flow backing to west later in 
the weekend. Meanwhile...at surface level...boundary to our south 
slowly dissipates and Bermuda high establishes itself. This will 
allow an increasing southwest flow well into the week. A weak cold 
front will shear out just north of the forecast area later Monday... 
but the southwest flow continues through Wednesday...when low pressure 
moves across northern Maine with its associated cold front 
dragging Wednesday night. That front is prognosticated to stall along 
the coast on Thursday. High pressure behind the front works its 
way offshore...resulting a re-establishment of the southwest flow. 


&& 


Near term /until 8 PM this evening/... 
some high clouds. Any cumulus should dissipate with loss of afternoon 
heating. 


&& 


Short term /8 PM this evening through 6 PM Sunday/... 
boundary dissipates through the period. Continued high evening 
clouds especially over southern sections should continue to 
dissipate overnight. Patchy fog expected until after sunrise. 
Southwest flow begins to develop with increasing humidity 
later tomorrow. Used mav/met/current forecast for temperatures 
and winds...and mav/current forecast for probability of precipitation. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday night through Saturday/... 
long term period begins with an upper level trough over the Ohio 
River valley...and southwest flow aloft over northern New England. 
As the trough slides eastward during the day...expect warmer and 
more humid air to move into the region. GFS is being very 
aggressive with afternoon convection Monday and is producing 
SBCAPE values over 2000 j/kg across much of the area. The NAM is 
much more conservative and is indicating a fairly strong middle level 
cap in place. Will take a middle of the Road approach with high 
chance probability of precipitation. Flow becomes more zonal on Tuesday. A weak boundary 
approaches the region on Wednesday...which will bring the next 
best chance for precipitation to northern New England. High 
pressure moves in for Thursday through Saturday 


&& 


Aviation /18z Saturday through Thursday/... 
short term...VFR through much of the evening...lowering overnight to 
MVFR in fog over much of the forecast area...some IFR/LIFR conditions 
in the river valleys. Conditions improving to VFR after 12z forecast 
areawide. 


Long term...after showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon could 
present some flight issues and local MVFR/IFR conditions. Similar 
conditions return on Wednesday. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term...no flags anticipated. 


Long term...all quiet on the waters. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$