335 
fxus61 kcar 300822 
afdcar 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Caribou ME 
422 am EDT Sat Aug 30 2008 


Synopsis... 
a cold front will cross the region today...then move to 
the east tonight. High pressure will build east later 
Sunday...then persist early next week. 
&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
a cold front will cross the region today through early 
tonight...then move to the east later tonight. Aloft...an upper 
trough approaches today...then sharpens across the region tonight. 
Isolated to scattered showers are possible across the forecast 
area this morning. More numerous showers will develop across the 
region this afternoon in advance of the cold front. Enough 
instability could also exist this afternoon to support scattered 
thunderstorms. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will persist early 
this evening in advance of the cold front...with diminishing shower 
chances in the wake of the cold front. With the sharpening upper 
trough across the region...skies will then remain partly/mostly 
cloudy overnight. High temperatures today will range from the lower 
to middle 70s north...to the middle to upper 70s downeast. Low 
temperatures tonight will range from around 50 to the lower 50s 
north...to the middle 50s downeast. 
&& 


Short term /Sunday through Monday/... 
an upper level trough is expected to move to the east of the state 
at the beginning of this forecast period. At the surface strong 
high pressure will be building in from the west. This surface high 
which is accompanied by a strong upper level ridge...will drift 
only very slowly to the east during this forecast period. Will use 
a model blend of the nam12...gfs40 and sref for probability of precipitation and will make 
some minor adjustment to sky cover to fit probability of precipitation. Using gmos for 
temperature...dew point and wind. Will adjust gmos maximum/min by 
raising maximum and lowering min a few degrees...especially mins in cold 
air mass. 
&& 


Long term /Monday night through Friday/... 
strong surface and upper level high pressure system still to the 
west of New England at the beginning of this forecast period. This 
system is to remain in place through Wednesday at which time the 
system weakens. A cold front approaches the forecast area from the 
northwest Thursday then moves across the state late in the day or 
at night. Another area of high pressure is then expected to build 
in behind this front. Have initialized grids with gmos. Only 
changes were to adjust sky cover to better fit probability of precipitation. 
&& 


Aviation /06z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
patchy fog will produce local IFR/LIFR conditions across the 
region early this morning. Once the fog dissipates...generally 
VFR conditions are expected today though local MVFR conditions 
could occur with any showers/thunderstorms. Showers/thunderstorms 
should continue to produce MVFR conditions at times this evening. 
Otherwise...generally VFR conditions are expected tonight. 
Generally VFR conditions are then expected to persist Sunday 
through Wednesday. 
&& 


Marine... 
near term: winds/seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels 
today through tonight. Visibilities could be reduced at times in 
any showers today through tonight. 


Short term: have initialized wind field with 50/50 blend of nam12 
and gfs40. Even with northwest flow expected...with sea surface 
temperature 5 to 19 degrees below air temperature expect stable 
conditions so will lower wind speed a few knots below model blend. 
For waves: have initialized grids with wna. Swell field from fetch 
south of Nova Scotia yesterday appears to be a little overdone so 
will increase wave height 1 foot at beginning of period. For 
Tuesday and Wednesday have used gmos winds. Will adjust gmos winds 
lower 1 to 2 knots Tuesday. Wna looks good Tuesday and beyond. 
&& 


Car watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Near term...Norcross 
short term...mignone 
long term...mignone 
aviation...Norcross 
marine...Norcross/mignone