214 
fxus61 kgyx 240747 
afdgyx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
347 am EDT Thursday Jul 24 2008 




Synopsis... 
an upper level trough will remain west of the area through 
Friday. Waves rotating around this system will provide areas of 
heavy rain and thunderstorms through tonight...with rainfall 
amounts in excess of 2 inches possible. A cold front will cross 
the region early Friday...with drier air briefly building in 
behind the front. For the weekend...low pressure will pass to the 
north...bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms late 
Saturday into Sunday. 


&& 


Near term /through today/... 
areas of moderate to heavy rain are currently affecting New 
Hampshire and coastal sections of Maine. These areas should 
continue to move slowly northeast this morning. Axis of heaviest 
precipitation will be with main frontal boundary which will 
approach western New Hampshire today...then slowly cross the 
forecast area overnight. This boundary will be accompanied by 
showers and thunderstorms with heavy downpours. There is also a slight 
risk of large hail and damaging winds across New Hampshire and 
western Maine with these storms this afternoon. 


&& 


Short term /tonight/... 
both NAM and GFS show a wave 
developing along the boundary tonight with quite a bit of rain 
across most of western Maine overnight. While model qpfs may be a 
bit overdone...there still should be significant rainfall amounts 
with this wave given the moisture available to this system. 
Therefore..have issued a Flood Watch for interior sections of 
western Maine. The Flood Watch also continues for most of New 
Hampshire. Heavy rain should be ending from west to east overnight 
as the frontal boundary moves east. 


&& 


Long term /Friday through Wednesday/... 
the unsettled pattern will continue for the foreseeable future. 
The mean trough will remain over the NE for the next week to 10 
days with several chances at showers and thunderstorms. On Friday 
this current system moves east of the forecast area by afternoon. 
Used a blend of the mav and met for high temperatures. Friday night will 
feel more comfortable as dew points will be down in the low to mids 
50s. Saturday will be a warm to hot day. I used a blend of the mav 
an met for highs. Don/T think it will be as warm as the mav/S. Dew 
points will be rising Sat. A cold front will be approaching the area 
late Sat. Showers and thunderstorms will form later Sat and 
continue through a good portion of Sunday as the front will be 
agonizingly slow to move through...not clearing the coast until 
early Monday morning. There could be another round of heavy rain 
with this system. A secondary front will move through Monday night. 
Showers and a small chance of thunder Tuesday afternoon mainly in the mountains 
then hopefully we will see a decent Wednesday. GFS has a potent system 
affecting US Thursday. However European model (ecmwf) keeps this low south of the area. 


&& 


Aviation /07z Thursday through Monday/... 
short term...IFR to MVFR conditions expected today and tonight in 
showers...thunderstorms...and fog. 


Long term...expect VFR conditions by noon on Friday through Sat afternoon 
then MVFR and possibly IFR in showers and thunderstorms late Sat 
afternoon and Sat night and sun. Expect VFR again Sun night. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term...winds and seas will be increasing today and tonight 
as a frontal boundary approaches and begins to cross the waters. 


Long term...winds may approach small craft late Sat and early 
Sunday ahead of the cold front. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
expect 2 to 4 inches of rain across New Hampshire and Maine with 
locally higher amounts due to thunderstorms. Axis of heaviest 
rainfall will be over western New Hampshire this afternoon...then 
gradually shift east to Maine overnight. Flood watches are in 
effect for New Hampshire from this morning through Friday morning. 
Flood watches are in effect for portions of western Maine from 
this afternoon into Friday evening. 


Due to the convective nature of this event...flash flooding is 
also a possibility. Locally heavy rainfall may cause streams and 
fast responding rivers to rise quickly...perhaps requiring a Flash 
Flood Warning. For now...the main threat is slower responding 
flooding. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Friday 
evening for mez007>009-012>014-018>021. 
New Hampshire...Flood Watch from 8 am EDT this morning through Friday morning 
for nhz001>009. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for anz150>154. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...Hawley/jensenius 
near term...jensenius 
short term...jensenius 
long term...Hawley 
hydrology...jensenius/Hawley