643 
fxus61 kcar 212042 
afdcar 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Caribou ME 
342 PM EST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will cross the region tonight through Monday...then 
move to the east Monday night. 
&& 


Near term /through Sunday/... 
the main challenge through this period remains stratocu fields 
across the forecast area and their effect on lows tonight. Have opted to 
leave large areas of stratocu intact tonight based on GFS 
guidance, continuing north flow, and subsidence. Will keep light 
winds going most of night except in far western regions such as 
zones 1, 3 and 4 which will be closer to the high pressure center. 
As a result, have kept temperatures up in the upper 20s to low 30s in 
most of forecast area except in the western zones where some sheltered 
locations could radiate down to just below 20f. 
&& 


Short term /Sunday night through Tuesday night/... 
high pressure will cross the region Sunday night through Monday 
keeping mostly clear skies across the region....then move east 
Monday night. Moisture will begin to be drawn north from low 
pressure near the middle Atlantic coast later Monday night. Cloud 
cover will begin to expand north across the forecast area later 
Monday night...with a slight chance of showers late along the 
downeast coast. Although high pressure will be centered well east 
of the region Tuesday through Tuesday night...the ridge axis will 
extend westward across northern New England. At the same 
time...the middle Atlantic low will attempt to move north against the 
ridge. Uncertainty still exists regarding how much moisture is 
able to move north into the ridging across the forecast area. Have 
kept a chance of showers downeast Tuesday/Tuesday night...with a 
slight chance of showers reaching northern areas later Tuesday 
night. Temperatures will remain at above normal levels 
Monday/Tuesday. 
&& 


Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/... 
both the European model (ecmwf) and the GFS have the high pressure ridge holding 
strong to the east and forcing the incoming storm system more to the 
south and further away from the coast. GFS is still the wetter of 
the two solutions. Have chance probability of precipitation mainly focused to the downeast 
area of the County Warning Area through Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon 
into Wednesday night the rain could become more widespread in 
coverage and with that have added chance probability of precipitation for the entire County Warning Area. The 
rain should taper Thursday into Thursday night with some clearing 
on Thursday afternoon and evening. Another storm system comes in 
to play by the end of the period. Both the European model (ecmwf) and GFS have 
another storm moving through the area on Friday. The path of this 
storm is important to the precipitation type and at this time it favors 
the main precipitation type being snow for Friday. As for the temperatures have 
used gmos and adjusted as needed throughout the period. 
&& 


Aviation /18z Saturday through Thursday/... 
near term: areas of MVFR ceilings will continue at times through 
tonight at kcar, kfve, kpqi and other locations in northern 
Maine. Gusty northwest winds will decrease towards sunset and remain 
light through Sunday while high pressure settles over Maine. 
Conditions will be VFR across the forecast area Sunday. 


Short term: VFR conditions are expected across the region Sunday 
night through much of Monday night. Occasional MVFR conditions 
could develop across downeast areas later Monday night. VFR 
conditions are expected across northern portions of the forecast 
area Tuesday through Tuesday night. Generally VFR...with 
occasional MVFR...conditions are expected downeast Tuesday through 
Tuesday night. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the 
entire region Wednesday/Thursday. 
&& 


Marine... 
near term: long period swell in coastal waters is steadily 
decreasing and continue to anticipate that the Small Craft Advisory for hazardous 
seas will be allowed to expire this afternoon. Seas and winds will 
continue to diminish through Sunday. 


Short term: winds/seas are expected to remain below Small Craft 
Advisory levels Sunday night through Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory 
conditions are then expected Tuesday night through Thursday. 
&& 


Car watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EST 
this afternoon for anz050-051. 


&& 


$$ 
Near term...mwalker 
short term...Norcross 
long term...hill 
aviation...mwalker 
marine...mwalker/Norcross