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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 
558 am EDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Synopsis... 
above normal temperatures will prevail for most of the next week. 
There will still be the more than usual episodes of afternoon and 
evening thunderstorms associated with weakening frontal systems 
crossing New England...running into the persistent large and stationary 
west central Atlantic Ocean high pressure center. 90 degree heat is 
expected at least two days this coming workweek for the bos cef hfd mht 
urban centers. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
heavy rain showers moving across central and western CT at 08z. 
Noted that kdxr reporting just over an inch of rain in last 3 hours. 
Have included heavy rain wording in zones for CT/RI/se Massachusetts as this 
pushes through. Have seen isolated c/g lightning over west CT...so would not be 
surprised to see a couple of thunderstorms with the heavy rain. 


Short range models show another impulse will move along the stalled 
front along or just S of the S coast later this morning and 
afternoon. Have also included scattered thunderstorms for southern areas. Still 
seeing a sharp delineation around the Mass Pike between precipitation and 
no precipitation for today. Have highest probability of precipitation...likely-Cat...for north CT/RI/se 
Massachusetts through today. Weak high pressure over north New England providing enough 
subsidence to hold precipitation at Bay...along with the upper level west-east 
flow. 


Will be mild and muggy. Leaned toward the cooler NAM and metnam 
guidance for today with clouds...but a bit warmer over S New Hampshire where 
clouds will be thinner. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Sunday/... 
models have impulse moving east of region tonight...so have tapered off 
the probability of precipitation from north-S overnight. Still carried chance probability of precipitation early S of 
the Mass Pike...then ending on the Outer Cape and Nantucket around 
06z. However...with lots of low level moisture especially over 
southern areas with the rainfall as well as dewpoints mainly in the 
60s for central and southern sections...will see patchy to areas of 
fog develop overnight. May have visibility concerns over southern areas as 
well as on the cape and islands. Will need to monitor this. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Friday/... 
overall... a very warm pattern is unfolding for the next week or 2...superb 
for beach goers though caution is advised to monitor rip current forecasts 
for the S coastal waters this coming week. We'll be monitoring for backdoor 
potential to relieve the east mass coast. 


At least two days of 90 plus heat forecast for next Tuesday/Wednesday and a heat 
wave may develop if we touch 90f on Monday...for which there is a chance. 


Thunderstorm potential in the interior sun-Wed...primary risk days for strongest 
storms including damaging wind appears to be Wednesday and then Monday in that 
order of ranking. 


A heat advisory may be needed Wednesday for a few parts of the Boston/hfd/cef 
regions. 


Air quality likely to degrade...starting Monday and worsening Tuesday or 
Wednesday. We issue what the state depts of environmental protection advise. 


For this fcst: GFS mav MOS guide was the basis for the nighttimes through 
Wednesday night and continuity with the 4pm Thursday forecast on Max's or raised 
00z/5 GFS mex MOS guide a few degrees sun-Thu. 


Did not buy into the big GFS cool down for next Friday although it 
should turn noticeably less humid on Friday. 


Heat may return over the weekend...especially Sunday. 


There is signal for big heat on one or 2 days between tuesdays the 
8th and 15th....more than our Standard Summer occasional 93f. 


Otherwise..this forecast is a pretty straighforward merger of the 00z/5 GFS/ec/UKMET 
all saying about the same thing. 


The dailies have slight variations due to modeled instability and 
that will change so am not detailing the dailies. 


Please use point and click for our assessment. 


As we draw closer to each day in question we will highlight more 
confidence in various hazards. 




&& 


Aviation /10z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
today...mainly MVFR visibilities in fog at most Airport locations with a 
couple of places down to IFR. Ceilings are all over the place...but 
generally VFR. Where the rain is occurring at 08z...mainly MVFR-IFR 
cigs/vsbys. 


Expect mainly VFR conditions north of the Mass Pike...then sharp line to 
MVFR-IFR with area of rain moving through this morning over southern 
areas. Expect more showers and scattered thunderstorms to develop after 15z 
mainly for north CT/RI/se Massachusetts closest to stalled front...keeping scattered 
MVFR-IFR conditions for the afternoon. 


Tonight...appears wave moves east of the region so precipitation will taper 
off S of the Pike after 03z or so. However...expect MVFR-IFR 
conditions to develop with low clouds and fog. North of the Mass 
Pike...will see mainly VFR ceilings. 


Outlook...Sunday through Wednesday... 


Mainly VFR haze in the afternoon with conditions degrading to MVFR 
in mainly afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Overnight...patchy fog and stratus 
will occur with IFR conds...typical for the SW bl flow July heat 
pattern. 


&& 


Marine... 
today...expect a general east wind at 10 knots or less with seas 4 feet or 
less. Visibilities will be a mile or less early in fog...then 1-3 miles in 
fog and showers/thunderstorms mainly S of Provincetown. 


Tonight...winds will be mainly southeast...but may shift to SW on the 
southern waters after midnight. Still a light pressure gradient so 
speeds will be 10 knots or less. Fog will redevelop again mainly after 
midnight with visibilities 1-3nm. 


Outlook...Sunday through Wednesday... 


Sunday...seas below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Overnight fog may visibility near zero 
with navigation hampered S coast. 


Monday...seas may reach Small Craft Advisory conditions on the outer waters due to 
persistent south/southwest flow. This will also prompt the return 
of an above normal rip current risk along the south coastal beaches. 
Fog at night and part of the day S coast. 


Tuesday and Wednesday...seas continue around 5 to 6 feet across the 
southern outer waters. Above normal rip current risk may also continue 
along the south coastal beaches. Fog at night and part of the day S 
coast. 


Some of the dat we've been seeing suggests low 13-15 second period 
swells from distant berth /1-3 feet/ arrive here middle week. This could 
be of surfer interest but also...raises the likelihood for dangerous rip 
currents. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
a flood advisory is posted for hfd Tolland and Windham counties until 8a. 


Can see spotty 2.5 inch amounts before it quits. That causes poor 
drainage St flooding for a short time and a few rapidly rising 
creeks/small streams. 


&& 


Box watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Rhode Island...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...drag 558 
near term...drag/evt 
short term...evt 
long term...drag 558 
aviation...drag/evt 558 
marine...drag/evt 558 
hydrology...drag 558 

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