756 
fxus64 kshv 212013 
afdshv 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la 
313 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Discussion... 


Scattered convection is being observed this afternoon across the 
County Warning Area...with much of the activity taking place in SW Arkansas. 
A decent amount moisture is expected to linger through much of the 
weekend...thus showers and thunderstorms will continue to be 
worded in the forecast. A shear axis left in the wake of the 
recent upper low...will linger across the northern portions of the 
area through the weekend. Models show several disturbances 
rotating along this axis during the short term which will only 
enhance instability...this along with daytime heating and moisture 
will keep some scattered thunderstorm activity in the forecast 
through Sunday. 


Model forecasts show that Fay comes into play on Sunday...as it moves 
into Mississippi. With the area being on the western side of 
Fay...I do not expect significant rain from this system...but we 
should experience a fairly nice northeast breeze. 


Guidance has a warming trend starting this weekend...with temperatures 
reaching well into the middle 90s through much of the next work 
week. The extended forecast is dry as well with 20 cents mentioned 
here and there. 


&& 


Aviation... 


Scattered rain shower/thunderstorm have focused NE-SW orientation across NE Texas and extreme 
western Arkansas. Convection isolated elsewhere. As convective available potential energy reached 2-3000... 
convection should be largely diurnal. Light southerly flow overnight 
will bring some MVFR ceilings into area between 10-12z...likely miss 
eld/mlu. May be better fog potential at those sites...but limited by 
cirrus canopy./Vii/ 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
shv 72 91 72 91 72 / 30 40 20 30 20 
mlu 71 91 71 91 71 / 30 50 20 30 20 
deq 69 91 71 91 69 / 40 40 20 30 20 
txk 71 91 71 91 71 / 30 40 20 30 20 
eld 71 90 71 90 71 / 40 50 20 30 20 
tyr 73 91 73 90 72 / 20 20 20 30 20 
ggg 72 91 72 91 71 / 20 20 20 30 20 
lfk 72 90 72 90 72 / 20 40 20 30 20 


&& 


Shv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...none. 
La...none. 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


11/07