817 
fxus64 kshv 212107 
afdshv 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la 
307 PM CST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Discussion... 
large slow moving upper level low pressure system over the 
Louisiana Gulf Coast will continue to drift slowly east to the 
Alabama area by Sunday afternoon. Rainfall will continue into the 
evening over the central Louisiana zones...including the north 
central Louisiana area near Monroe...as moisture wraps around the 
low pressure system up into Louisiana. Late tonight rain should 
gradually taper off from west to east...as the whole system moves 
east. 


The period of Sunday and Monday look to be dry in between 
systems. The next possible rain maker will be a cold front that 
will move through the four state area Monday night and Tuesday. 
This probably wont be as efficient a rain maker as this past upper 
low system that moved along the Gulf Coast. The front wont have as 
much moisture to work with Monday night and Tuesday...but it will 
probably produce a narrow line of showers and thunderstorms 
sometime late Monday night and/or Tuesday morning as the front 
moves through the area. 


Late next week looks to be dry although a fairly strong 
reinforcing cold front will move through the four state area 
around Wednesday night. Looks to be rather chilly for Thanksgiving 
and the end of next week. 


&& 


Aviation... 
surface low out over the Gulf is offshore south of klft and slowly 
moving eastward. The upper low is over klch. Moisture wrapping 
around the low is mostly in the middle levels over our County Warning Area with VFR 
continuing for all but klfk where MVFR is lingering. Ceilings are 
dropping a bit in the wake of the low...but will keep VFR this 
PM...but cant rule out IFR/MVFR for a couple or few terminals 
overnight. Surface winds are light north/NE for our terminals and will 
keep less than 10 kts for this taf cycle. Look for the rain clouds 
to exit eastern sections this evening as the low moves out...but 
IFR ceilings/visibility may develop generally along and south of I-20 
overnight and for early daylight on Sunday as the winds slack. 
Improvements by lunch as weak 1017 mb high pressure builds in over 
Texas. 
/24/ 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
shv 48 65 45 71 52 / 30 0 0 10 20 
mlu 49 63 44 69 48 / 60 10 0 10 20 
deq 44 66 43 69 47 / 20 0 0 10 30 
txk 48 65 44 69 50 / 20 0 0 10 30 
eld 47 63 42 69 50 / 40 0 0 10 20 
tyr 46 67 47 72 52 / 10 0 0 10 20 
ggg 46 67 45 73 50 / 10 0 0 10 20 
lfk 48 68 45 74 52 / 30 0 0 10 20 


&& 


Shv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...none. 
La...none. 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


03/24